My Full 2009 NCAA Tournament Predictions:

MIDWEST REGION     EAST REGION
WEST REGION            SOUTH REGION
 

1) The team with the most individual talent does not always win the national championship. In fact, in recent Tournament history, it only seems to happen about half the time. North Carolina won in ’05 with Sean May, Ray Felton, and Rashad McCants. The Huskies won in ’04, led by Emeka Okafor and Ben Gordon, but Syracuse upset Kansas to win in ’03. Two balanced teams made the final in ‘02, with Maryland winning the battle with Indiana after the Hoosiers had knocked off a loaded Duke team in the Sweet 16. The Blue Devils won in ’01 behind NBA-level stars Shane Battier, Jayson Williams, and Mike Dunleavy, but Michigan State won behind its teamwork in 2000, while more talented Duke and Arizona made early exits. This year’s UConn and North Carolina teams clearly have the most talent–will they meet in Detroit?

2) Don’t pick all four #1 seeds to reach the Final Four. 2008 was the only year this has happened in the modern era (since 1985) and history is not likely to repeat itself anytime soon.

3) Historically, 7-10 affairs have been almost as evenly matched as 8-9 games. Don’t be afraid to pick two of the #10 seeds to get to the second round—or more (see item #4).

4) #10 seeds make great sleepers. Even office pool veterans might find this one surprising—I’m not sure why it doesn’t get the same amount of media hype as the ever-reliable 5-12 upset…2006 and 2007 were the first times since 1996 that at least one #10 seed didn’t reach the Sweet 16. Kent State and Gonzaga have even made the Elite Eight as a #10 in relatively recent memory, along with everyone’s favorite, Davidson, in 2008.   USC would be my pick to do it this year…

5) It’s not just mid-major Cinderellas that do well with double-digit seeds. Like their little brothers, major-conference schools among the last at-large teams selected also have an uncanny record of winning at least one game in the NCAA Tournament. Examples: Texas A&M 2006, NC State 2005, Auburn 2003, Missouri 2002, Georgetown 2001, to name a few. Villanova made a great run to the Sweet 16 in 2008.  Arizona or USC might do it this year.

6) Free throw percentages matter. What all of your favorite buzzer-beating highlights from previous Tournaments DON’T show is the number of times the losing team has missed one or more free throws prior to the victors’ heroics. Memphis’ foul shooting wasn’t an issue until the final few minutes of the final game last year, but it did finally jump up and bite the Tigers.  Look for the teams that shoot well from the foul line, and especially well in the clutch. Utah, Kentucky, North Carolina, and Cal all shoot pretty well. Dayton, Siena, and Texas don’t.  Pitt is probably the worst at the line among the top eight seeds.

7) Teams that get to the charity stripe can save themselves on a cold shooting night. If the shots aren’t falling, who can get to the rim? Among the national leaders in free throw attempts: Washington, Marquette, North Carolina, and Villanova.

8) Pick Duke to reach the Sweet 16—at least. Love ‘em or hate ‘em, the Blue Devils have made the third round of the Tournament nine years in the last 11 (though they’ve missed two of the last three). Nevertheless, Coach K is a terrific in-game coach, and Duke is playing in Greensboro for the first two rounds–an arena they’ve OWNED in the ACC Tournament over the years.

9) Look for teams with clutch players. UNC’s Tyler Hansbrough, Pitt’s Levance Fields, UCLA’s Darren Collison, ASU’s James Harden, and Kansas’ Sherron Collins make up my “All-Clutch” Starting Five. And don’t forget that mid-majors can have these guys, too—VCU’s Eric Maynor, and Siena’s Kenny Hasbrouck are just a few mid-major stars who have been unbelievable in late-game situations throughout their careers.

10) Remember that the West and Midwest Regional Finals, as well as the Final Four, are played in massive domes. After playing in traditional college gyms all season, it’s often difficult for players to adjust their depth perception when shooting in a supersized arena that seats 40,000+. The team with the most experience playing in domes might be UCLA (last three Final Fours).  And North Carolina has good vibes going in Detroit, having POUNDED Michigan State by 30 there earlier this year.

11) The Mountain West hasn’t gotten enough publicity this year. Utah and BYU have been battle-tested in the rugged conference.  I’m taking BYU over A&M in round #1; Utah has a tough draw with Arizona but should pose plenty of problems for the Wildcats.

12) Don’t drive yourself crazy picking the early-round games—it’s far more important to get the Final Four correct. In a traditional bracket pool, you’ll earn the same number of points for picking two Final Four members than for predicting all of the first-round games combined. Spend most of your time analyzing who’s going to make an extended run rather than obsessing about one or two 8-9 or 5-12 matchups.

13) Look at your predicted national champion’s schedule to see if it has won six-plus games in a row during the regular season. If it hasn’t, there’s little reason to believe that team can win six straight games with everything on the line.

14) Defense doesn’t always win championships in college hoops, but it can certainly win you a couple of games. Gonzaga, Memphis, UConn, Butler, Kentucky, Kansas, Purdue, Xavier, and Florida State are all in the top 12 nationally in terms of FG% defense. Gonzaga, Memphis, Xavier, and Butler haven’t played the same kind of competition in conference play that the others have, but these will be teams I’ll be taking deeper than I otherwise might have this year.

15) The final score of the championship game is often lower than you might expect. I’m throwing this one in because the combined final score is the traditional tie-breaking method in most office pools. Nerves often lead to poor shooting and increased turnovers, especially early in the game, so err a few points on the low side of your initial guess.

16) If all else fails, ask your spouse or significant other who he/she would pick. (That is, unless you’re in the same pool.)

Good luck, everyone, and enjoy the games!

Since creating Bracketography in 2001, David Mihm has become one of the nation's leading NCAA Tournament analysts. He currently lives in Portland, Oregon, where he works full-time in web design and internet marketing.