“Sweet 16” Tips for Picking a Winning Bracket

1) The team with the most individual talent does not always win the national championship. In fact, in recent Tournament history, it only seems to happen about half the time. North Carolina won in ’05 with Sean May, Ray Felton, and Rashad McCants. The Huskies won in ’04, led by Emeka Okafor and Ben Gordon, but Syracuse upset Kansas to win in ’03. Two balanced teams made the final in ‘02, with Maryland winning the battle with Indiana after the Hoosiers had knocked off a loaded Duke team in the Sweet 16. The Blue Devils won in ’01 behind NBA-level stars Shane Battier, Jayson Williams, and Mike Dunleavy, but Michigan State won behind its teamwork in 2000, while more talented Duke and Arizona made early exits.  Less-talented, well-coached teams with a chance to win the championship this year include Pittsburgh, Texas, Stanford, Georgetown, and Tennessee.

2) Don’t pick all four #1 seeds to reach the Final Four. (This one’s for March Madness rookies.) It’s never happened, and it won’t happen this year either, with parity at an all-time high in college hoops.

3) Historically, 7-10 affairs have been almost as evenly matched as 8-9 games. Don’t be afraid to pick two of the #10 seeds to get to the second round—or more (see item #4).

4) #10 seeds make great sleepers. Even office pool veterans might find this one surprising—I’m not sure why it doesn’t get the same amount of media hype as the ever-reliable 5-12 upset… The last two years have been the first times since 1996 that at least one #10 seed didn’t reach the Sweet 16. Kent State and Gonzaga have even made the Elite Eight as a #10 in relatively recent memory. This year, #10’s Davidson and Arizona could be excellent choices.

5) It’s not just mid-major Cinderellas that do well with double-digit seeds. Like their little brothers, major-conference schools among the last at-large teams selected also have an uncanny record of winning at least one game in the NCAA Tournament. Examples: Texas A&M 2006, NC State 2005, Auburn 2003, Missouri 2002, Georgetown 2001, to name a few. This year’s candidates: Villanova (12), Baylor(11), Kentucky (11), Kansas State (11).

6) Free throw percentages matter. What all of your favorite buzzer-beating highlights from previous Tournaments DON’T show is the number of times the losing team has missed one or more free throws prior to the victors’ heroics. Indiana, North Carolina, and Drake are among the best in the country as a team, and two of Texas’ key players (Augustin, Abrams) shoot well over 80%. Among the worst teams in the field? Memphis and Pittsburgh.

7) Teams that get to the charity stripe can save themselves on a cold shooting night. If the shots aren’t falling, who can get to the rim? Among the national leaders in free throw attempts: Memphis (hey, it’s quantity over quality with the Tigers), North Carolina, UConn, Duke, and Texas A&M.

8) Pick Duke to reach the Sweet 16—at least. Love ‘em or hate ‘em, the Blue Devils have made the third round of the Tournament nine years in the last 10. Coach K is a terrific in-game coach. Arizona and West Virginia are both dangerous teams, but don’t be surprised to see Duke in the Elite Eight.

9) Look for teams with clutch players. UNC’s Tyler Hansbrough, Pitt’s Levance Fields, UCLA’s Darren Collison, Stanford’s Brook Lopez, and Texas’ D.J. Augustin make up my “All-Clutch” Starting Five. And don’t forget that mid-majors can have these guys, too—Butler’s A.J. Graves, Drake’s Adam Emmenecker, and Temple’s Diante Christmas are just a few mid-major stars who have been unbelievable in late-game situations this year.

10) Remember that the Midwest and South Regional Finals, as well as the Final Four, are played in massive domes. After playing in traditional college gyms all season, it’s often difficult for players to adjust their depth perception when shooting in a supersized arena that seats 40,000+.  The team with the most experience playing in domes might be UCLA (last two Final Fours).

11) The Pac-10 is better this year than it’s been in a decade, and it’s better than fans who are just tuning in to March Madness probably realize. Every team in the “Conference of Champions” has faced a number of different styles of play within the conference, and all of the teams selected for the Tournament have won at least one road game against a major opponent this year.  Arizona has had a ton of injuries, notably to Jerryd Bayless and Nic Wise, who are both healthy.

12) Don’t drive yourself crazy picking the early-round games—it’s far more important to get the Final Four correct. In a traditional bracket pool, you’ll earn the same number of points for picking two Final Four members than for predicting all of the first-round games combined. Spend most of your time analyzing who’s going to make an extended run rather than obsessing about one or two 8-9 or 5-12 matchups.

13) Look at your predicted national champion’s schedule to see if it has won six-plus games in a row during the regular season. If it hasn’t, there’s little reason to believe that team can win six straight games with everything on the line.

14) Defense doesn’t always win championships in college hoops, but it can certainly win you a couple of games. Kansas, Georgetown, Michigan State, and Memphis are among the best in the country in terms of Field Goal % Defense. Take MSU’s and Memphis’ rankings with a grain of salt, however, as their competition to date likely hasn’t been as adept at scoring as their potential NCAA Tournament foes.

15) The final score of the championship game is often lower than you might expect. I’m throwing this one in because the combined final score is the traditional tie-breaking method in most office pools. Nerves often lead to poor shooting and increased turnovers, especially early in the game, so err a few points on the low side of your initial guess.

16) If all else fails, ask your spouse or significant other who he/she would pick. (That is, unless you’re in the same pool.)

Good luck, everyone, and enjoy the games!

Since creating Bracketography in 2001, David Mihm has become one of the nation's leading NCAA Tournament analysts. He currently lives in Portland, Oregon, where he works full-time in web design and internet marketing.