Bracketography’s 2009 NCAA Tournament Bubble Breakdown
Founder & Editor, Bracketography.com
March 15th, 2009
FINAL Update: Selection Sunday, 1:00 pm PT.
Without a doubt, this is the most confusing year to try to project the bracket since I started doing this in 2001. I would have no argument with the Selection Committee on selecting ANY of the 9 teams on the “true bubble.”
Locks (38):
ACC: North Carolina, Wake Forest, Clemson, Duke, Florida State, Boston College
Big East: UConn, Pittsburgh, Louisville, Marquette, Villanova, West Virginia, Syracuse
Big Ten: Michigan State, Illinois, Purdue, Michigan, Ohio State
Big 12: Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri, Texas, Oklahoma State
Pac-10: Washington, Arizona State, California, UCLA, USC
SEC: LSU, Tennessee, Mississippi State
Atlantic-10: Xavier, Temple
Mountain West: Utah, BYU
Other: Memphis, Butler, Gonzaga
Pretty Solid (2):
Texas A&M (70%), Minnesota (60%)
Automatic Bids (21) — see bottom of page
Possible At-Large Bids (9 teams for 4 slots):
Dayton (Odds: 56.5%)
The Flyers sport a gaudy record in an underrated Atlantic 10, and own a neutral-court win over a healthy Marquette in the non-conference season AS WELL AS OVER AUBURN in the same tournament. The recent losses at Charlotte, Rhode Island, and Xavier put the Flyers squarely on the Bubble. The loss to Duquesne means a slip to the “bad side” is possible. The Flyers are lucky that power-conference Bubble teams also faltered.
Maryland (55%)
Mission #1 accomplished (beating UNC at home), #2 failed (losing to Duke at home), as did #3 (losing to Wake at home). Losing to Virginia was inexcusable. The Terps’ neutral-court win over Michigan State early in the year is as good as any, but their margin for error is extremely slim. Got the win against Wake Forest; now the Terps need to root for Mississippi State to take care of business.
Wisconsin (53%)
Fans in Madison are breathing a little easier now than they were a month ago. The Badgers own some nice road wins (@VaTech, @Michigan, @Penn State), which should separate them from other teams on the Bubble next month, and help the Committee forget about a six-game losing streak in January. The Badgers lost a chance to lock up a bid @Minnesota this week, and another against Ohio State.
———-VERY, VERY DICEY————-
Arizona (50.5%)
Russ Pennell has done an amazing job keeping this team together, and the chemistry on display against the Southern California schools on their visit to Tucson in mid-February bodes extremely well for the NCAA Tournament. Arizona’s solid non-conference schedule includes wins over San Diego State, Gonzaga, and Kansas. But yikes. Losing at home to Cal for a fourth-straight loss is not the message you want to send the Committee. Another missed opportunity to win away from home in the Pac-10 Tournament first-round…but at least their profile looks better than New Mexico’s and Auburn’s.
————OUT————
St Mary’s (49.5%)
Non-conference wins over Providence and San Diego State look pretty good right now, and a quasi-victory at Gonzaga before Patty Mills’ injury will no doubt be taken into consideration by the Selection Committee. But Patty’s shooting touch did not return for either WCC Tournament game. Although they got a win against an underrated Portland team (the Pilots beat Washington and Nevada in the non-confererence) thanks to their defense, getting blown out, and I mean BLOWN OUT, by Gonzaga on national television does not bode well.
I have a feeling the Committee watched Randy Bennett’s brilliantly-scheduled mid-week game against Eastern Washington. Mills played pretty well, but not phenomenally well. This team will get some sympathy from the Committee and the fact that they won their Bracketbuster matchup over Utah State–now the WAC Champion–withOUT Patty Mills will come in huge.
Honestly, this is the single most interesting team in Bracketography history for me.
Creighton (49.5%)
Could the Committee really snub a 14-4 Valley regular-season champion/co-champion with a solid non-conference resume? Oh wait, they’ve done it before…they’re in a bit of a role reversal after being blown out by Illinois State (it was Drake’s blowout win over ISU in last year’s Valley tournament that knocked the Redbirds out of consideration for an at-large bid). Creighton has to hope for the Flyers and Lobos to make deep runs in their conference tournaments, and literally NO upsets anywhere else. Their margin for error is extremely slim, although they WERE helped by St. Mary’s losing in the same fashion they did…though Gonzaga is a team superior to Illinois State.
San Diego State (49.5%)
FINALLY a Bubble team that helped its own cause. Beating BYU on a truly neutral floor was huge, as was its road win over UNLV the night before. SDSU did what I said they had to do a week ago: make the MWC Final. Steve Fisher’s team SHOULD be Dancing (i.e. if I had a vote on the Committee, I’d put them in), but there have been so many upsets across the rest of the bubble that it may not happen. Interesting: SDSU lost to both St. Mary’s and Arizona in the non-conference season, and UNLV is no longer considered a Top 50 RPI win…giving the Aztecs only one Top 50 win away from home, and four losses in their last 10 games.
Penn State (48%)
It’s been a long time since Penn State was in the NCAA Tournament discussion this late in the season, but that’s what wins at the Breslin Center and Assembly Hall (the one in Champaign) will do for you. Penn State’s non-conference resume is abysmal, though (I can’t even list a single team as a good win here). After sweeping the Illini on Talor Battle’s last-second shot last night, winning at Iowa last week would have gotten the Nittany Lions to 11-7 in conference and into lock status…but they lost that game AND were embarrassed by Purdue in the Big Ten Tournament. Oh, and it’s Selection Sunday morning and their RPI is 70. Which would be in New Mexico 1999 range…historic…
Auburn (47%)
OK Tiger fans, the win over LSU got my attention. Auburn still doesn’t have a darn thing on its non-conference schedule to brag about, and lost all its games against the top of the SEC East, with the exception of Tennessee. The odds aren’t great, but this team IS the hottest in the dreadful SEC and a trip to the Final would probably be good enough. Won a play-out game with Florida, lost their play-in game with Tennessee.
Long Shots:
UNLV (43%)
@Louisville, @BYU–two wins that will counteract a lot of bad losses, including a bad stretch in the middle of the season at TCU and at Colorado State. Lon Kruger’s Rebels also beat Arizona at home in the non-conference season. ENORMOUS home win over BYU last week, but the Rebs missed a chance to lock up a bid by falling at San Diego State, and then losing at home to the Aztecs in the MWC Tournament. Is a 9-8 team from the Mountain West really going to make it? UNLV’s margin for error is extremely slim.
New Mexico (44%)
Safe to say that life has returned to The Pit under Steve Alford–UNM has some excellent home wins, but has missed every opportunity to pick up a decent road or neutral-court win. Home blowout of SDSU and squeaker over Utah late in the season look nice, though. They shared a three-way MWC regular-season title and finished three whole games ahead of UNLV. Pretty much the only thing UNM couldn’t afford was a loss to Wyoming in the first round of the MWC Tournament. Oops.
Virginia Tech (41%)
The Hokies’ non-conference schedule was darn near disastrous, including losses to Seton Hall and Georgia. But their ACC performance has been impressive, including road wins at Wake Forest, at Miami, and at Clemson. Right now, the Hokies’ two big road wins (at Wake and at Clemson) keep them in the field, but they’ll need to win two in the ACC Tournament to get in for sure. North Carolina, without Ty Lawson, probably was a must-win game for them.
Providence (35%)
One of the two surprise teams in the Big East; Keno Davis has done a terrific job keeping this team in contention in his first year at the helm. Providence has benefitted from the league’s weakest schedule, but a season sweep of Cincinnati looks really nice. The loss at home to Notre Dame was a major blow, however, and PC needed to beat Louisville yesterday to make it.
Florida (35%)
Make no mistake, the Gators are in serious trouble. The only moderately impressive win on a #244 non-conference schedule is against Washington by two points. Barely .500 in the SEC is not going to cut it this year, and regardless of conspiracy theorists’ assertions, there are no bonus points given for recent Tournament performance. Lost a play-out game to Auburn.
South Carolina (30%)
The Gamecocks had done some nice winning away from home this year (@Baylor, @Kentucky). But neither of those wins looks as good now as it did a month ago. Lost a play-out game to Mississippi State in the SEC Tournament…likely NIT for Darrin Horn & Co.
Northwestern (30%)
How about a salute to Bill Carmody for making this team competitive in an “up” year for the Big Ten?! Wins over Florida State, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Ohio State and AT Michigan State and AT Purdue have kept this team in the discussion well beyond any year in team history. Somewhere Evan Eschmeyer is smiling. Needed one more against Minnesota to be a legit threat, though.
Rhode Island (20%)
Ended any hopes by losing to Duquesne yesterday. Even though Duquesne is probably a better team than most fans realize, it’s not a loss that a Bubble team can afford.
Davidson (20%)
My hunch is that without a win over Butler in the Bracketbuster, Davidson needed to win the Southern Conference’s automatic bid. Too many power-conference teams still have chances to pick up a late-season marquee win. So far the only truly impressive win on the ‘Cats’ schedule came over West Virginia at MSG. Safe to say, though, that every NCAA Tournament fan, Bubble team, and probably some Committee members will be rooting for Stephen Curry to make it back to the NCAA’s. But there’d be an outcry from all kinds of power-conference teams if Davidson were included.
Utah State (20%)
Stew Morrill needs a promotion. The Aggies have consistently been among the winningest programs in the West, and this year is no exception, as USU is obliterating the WAC. The only thing Morrill hasn’t figured out yet is how to set up a more strenuous non-conference schedule (at home to Utah is the only real scalp) so that his team won’t have to rely on a conference tournament victory in order to make the NCAA’s.
Tulsa (15%)
The Golden Hurricane made the CUSA Final. They also beat Texas A&M on a neutral floor. But the only way they’re getting in is via an automatic bid.
Notre Dame (10%)
Blowout over Louisville notwithstanding, the Irish are in serious trouble. The only other quality win on their resume came way back on November 25 against Texas. This fact is reflected in their abysmal sub-70 RPI (despite a steady helping of Top 50 opponents in the Big East). Losing to West Virginia means NIT.
Cincinnati (10%)
The Bearcats were in decent shape for an NCAA Tournament bid, having won @UNLV, and against fellow bubble dwellers UAB and Mississippi State. But with no real Big East scalps, save for West Virginia at home, the Bearcats could not afford a disastrous loss at South Florida and another at home to Seton Hall, and another to winless DePaul in the Big East Tournament.
Miami-FL (5%)
Georgia Tech? In a must-win game? Really?
Kansas State (5%)
North Carolina Central? In the middle of conference season? Clearly Frank Martin does not understand the RPI formula. KSU was lucky to squeak by Iowa State last weekend, and lost a must-win game at Missouri, and another against Texas in the first round of the B12T.
Kentucky (1%)
Early-season neutral-court wins over West Virginia and Kansas State have held up nicely, and sweeping Tennessee (the first in Knoxville behind Jodie Meeks’ 54 points) will clearly be on the Committee’s minds. But their RPI is 79 right now (!) which would mean a historic low if they somehow made the field…
Automatic Bids:
Akron (MAC)
Alabama St (SWAC)
American (Patriot)
Binghamton (AmEast)
Cornell (Ivy)
Chattanooga (SoCon)
Cleveland State (Horizon)
CSU-Northridge (Big West)
ETSU (A-Sun)
Morehead State (OVC)
Morgan State (MEAC)
North Dakota State (Summit)
Northern Iowa (MVC)
Portland State (Big Sky)
Radford (Big South)
Robert Morris (NEC)
Siena (MAAC)
Utah St (WAC)
VCU (CAA)
Western Kentucky (Sun Belt)
Stephen F Austin (Southland)
Bubble Math:
1) A team is only a “lock” if its chance of making the NCAA Tournament as an at-large is better than 95%. I really don’t like moving teams out of “lock” status because they’ve lost four games in a row.
2) 31 teams earn automatic bids to the NCAA Tournament.
3) 34 teams earn at-large slots to the NCAA Tournament.
Since creating Bracketography in 2001, David Mihm has become one of the nation's leading NCAA Tournament analysts. He currently lives in Portland, Oregon, where he works full-time in web design and internet marketing.
Hey guys–we had so many comments on this thread that our content management system crashed for this post–twice! So we started the thread over on March 2 and March 8. Most of the comments had been answered or were now out of date anyway.
Thanks for all of the great discussion; let’s keep it up!
Posted on March 1st, 2009 at 8:59 am | Comment PermalinkDavid- The Bears are two Conf. Tourney wins away from making my Braun fired-day prediction ["Cal would hire Monty AND the Bears would be a 5 seed in 2009 Big Dance"] come true !!! Go Bears ! Hope all is well with you ….Rick Woodward.
Posted on March 10th, 2009 at 5:17 pm | Comment PermalinkCongrats CSU in the dance for the 1st time since 1986. I could see them as a 12 seed and maybe even an 11 seed if things fall right. They lost a starter in D. Brown which hurts because he was a great defender but what a game with Butler. I still think Butler is in.
Posted on March 10th, 2009 at 9:36 pm | Comment PermalinkPersonnaly, I don’t think Florida, Maryland, or Providence will get an invite to the dance. That could all change with a good tournament run this weekend. Of course, a good tournament run can be negated by New Mexico winning the MWC, Tulsa winning conf. USA and Temple winning the A-10. On the flip side, Penn St., Minnesota, or a few others losing early could open up another slot. Looking at the tournament matchups, Florida appears to have the best chance: Arkansas, Auburn, and then the conf. semis. (Tenn. won’t be easy, anyone else is beatable). Who brought up Arizona St.? Not only are they in, but they are a likely 6-seed.
Posted on March 11th, 2009 at 10:40 am | Comment PermalinkArizona St., Texas A&M, and Oklahoma St. are all likely to be dancing unless some major upsets push all the bubble teams down. That said, ASU is the top of those three, having finished with the best record and highest in its conference. The RPIs are all close, with A&M’s dropping after their loss to Tech. ASU does have road wins against UCLA (very impressive), Arizona, and San DIego St. As far as bad losses, I would include Baylor and Wash. St. A&M has some impressive home wins, but none on the road (best is Nebraska), and they lost to Tulsa at home! OK St. has a high RPI because they played a harder schedule, but they lost them all (like Siena who has an RPI of 24). OK St. has no really good wins (Texas and A&M at home are the best), but no bad losses (Baylor on the road is the worst). They had better beat Oklahoma, otherwise they may get displaced by someone who got hot in their conference tournament (Big 10, ACC, and SEC have several options each).
Posted on March 12th, 2009 at 5:06 am | Comment PermalinkNot only did Peterson not have a point in the OVC championship game until the game-winner, he had no points in the semifinal game. For the first 89:58 in those games he was scoreless. I’m pretty sure APSU has been in 10 of the last 15 OVC title games, winning only 3. Talk about bridesmaids.
Looking like the at-large spots available are evaporating.
ACC — You have to think BC and VT took big steps towards clinching a spot tonight — not a lot of shame in either of those teams losing tomorrow (to UNC and Duke respectively). Maryland did what they needed to do, but don’t look like they would be right now. A win over an inconsistent Wake moves them close to lock status in my book though.
Bit Ten — Michigan looked strong as well and surely won’t be hurt with a loss to Illinois — I think they’re in. OSU was already in, IMO, but the win tonight has to clinch for them. Minnesota won a big game, but they may still need to beat MSU to move to “lock” status.
Big East — Doesn’t look like anyone managed to play themselves in (but this Syracuse-UConn game is the best I’ve seen this this post-season).
Big 12 — OSU has to move off of the bubble now. A&M still rests squarely on it, but that 34 in the RPI with the 6-1 record down the stretch has to look good to the Committee.
PAC-10 — USC is staying alive, but likely still needs a win over UCLA (judging from the start of that game).
MWC — UNLV is done, but SD St. and New Mexico are still alive (surely New Mexico will beat Wyoming) and each has a chance to move to lock status with wins tomorrow.
A-10 — Dayton has to be in now, IMO, and assuming they don’t lose to a not-horrible Duquesne I think they are clearly a lock. Temple is plugging along, probably not quite in right now. A win tomorrow changes that completely.
SEC — The teams with a “chance” who played today did what they needed to do — beat the bad teams they played. I don’t think any of them (UK, UF, and USC) can get in without of a bit of faltering elsewhere.
A few teams with no shot at an at-large are still alive in some of the tournaments, so everyone needs to pull for them to lose — you never know if the spot they take is yours.
Posted on March 12th, 2009 at 9:26 pm | Comment PermalinkI think the Mtn West just sorted themselves out yesterday. UNLV & New Mexico are out. San Diego St. is just about in along with Utah and BYU. OK St. just played themselves in, so I can correct my previous post where I said they had no good wins. Everyone in the Big 10 did what they had to, while the hangers on in the Big East bowed out. Va. Tech and Md are still alive, but they probably need to win tonight to get in. The most interested game tonight could be Florida – Auburn. This could be the true elimination game, although the winner is not aguaranteed a spot. The other good one is Wisconsin – Ohio St.
Posted on March 13th, 2009 at 4:46 am | Comment PermalinkAtticus. Providence, Cincinnati, Miami, Rhode Island and possibly Texas A&M all ”faltered elsewhere”. We beat Auburn, David moves us to lock status.
Another fun fact.
Northern Iowa has won 2 MVC Tournament titles. Both were on March 8(2004 and 2009), and both were in Overtime.
Posted on March 13th, 2009 at 10:00 am | Comment PermalinkI really believe that Arizona should get a bid. Their recent losses were during a period when Jordan Hill was playing at half speed with a bum ankle. Wins over Kansas, Gonzaga, UCLA, Washington, San Diego State, and USC combined with just one bad loss (@Stanford) seems like a pretty solid case to me.
Posted on March 13th, 2009 at 11:49 am | Comment PermalinkSurely South Carolina has to be officially “out” now. MSU could very, very easily win the SEC tourney. They have the guard play everyone else left seems to be lacking.
Posted on March 13th, 2009 at 2:34 pm | Comment PermalinkDavid this is very well thought out. Had Siena lost to Niagara do you think they would have gotten an invite? I think Niagara almost deserves a look although they are more than likely an NIT bid.
Wide open year- I am a Bruin (UCLA) letterman but dont like our team sweet 16 would be amazing
Jeff
Posted on March 13th, 2009 at 8:46 pm | Comment PermalinkNC State….win. Wake Forest….win. Were in, we heard all the talk about how we don’t deserve it, how we are so inconsistent, how we have so many blowouts, how we lost to Morgan State and Virginia….blah, blah, blah. Nobody else has the wins we have. UNC, Michigan State (two one seeds!!) Wake Forest….VT, Miami, Michigan. The list goes on and on…when our backs are to the wall, Maryland is in and goes up against OUR RIVAL Duke tomorrow….see you all in the dance. Wisconsin doesn’t deserved to go, neither does Arizona…same with South Carolina. Garyland is back!!!
Posted on March 13th, 2009 at 8:54 pm | Comment PermalinkI definitely think that the Dayton Flyers deserve to make the NCAA tournament. With a Chris Wright, Marcus Johnson, and Charles Little trio, I don’t see how you can ever turn down a team like UD. Not to mention that they have 26 wins and have beaten Marquette, Xavier, Temple, and Auburn. GO UD!
Posted on March 13th, 2009 at 10:08 pm | Comment PermalinkCare to re-think your comments on USC?
Posted on March 14th, 2009 at 7:21 am | Comment Permalink@ David. Who has a better chance at an at-large bid, USC or Baylor?
Posted on March 14th, 2009 at 8:58 am | Comment PermalinkDavid,
Great work!! I will miss you and the orange shoes in Vegas this year.
Andy
Posted on March 14th, 2009 at 8:58 am | Comment PermalinkI don’t see a logical argument for Michigan State and Louisville getting 1 seeds ahead of UConn.
UConn has no bad losses and has road wins at Louisville, WVU, and Marquette. They also beat Miami, Wisconsin, and Gonzaga out of conference.
Louisville also has no bad losses. They didn’t play at Pitt or at UConn, but solid road wins at Nova and at WVU. They beat Ole Miss, UAB, and Kentucky out of conference, but I think UConn’s above is much better.
Michigan State also has no bad losses. Beat Minn, OSU, Penn St, Michigan on the road. Beat Texas and OK State out of conference. I think they have a better argument than L’ville, but still think UConn has the edge.
Posted on March 14th, 2009 at 9:41 am | Comment PermalinkI posted this over at B101, but thought I’d also throw it out here.
Records for the 6 major conferences in the NCAA tournament, last 5 years (2004-2008):
1. ACC 45-25, .643
2. Big12 38-23, .623
3. SEC 40-26, .606
4. BigEast 48-33, .593
5. Pac10 32-23, .582
6. Big10 32-24, .571
Not saying the committee should choose accordingly, but you may want to fill out your bracket accordingly. And in the past 3 years, the Big10 is 17-16, which is mighty weak.
Posted on March 14th, 2009 at 10:08 am | Comment Permalink@ Matty: Personally, all MSU fans should hope the Spartans don’t get a No. 1 seed, which would mean a regional out west (in Arizona). If MSU gets the top No. 2 seed, it would likely end up in the midwest regional in Indianapolis.
But, here’s why MSU could have a better case than UConn to a No. 1 seed:
Most top-50 RPI wins of anyone in the country (13)… NO. 4 RPI, No. 6 SOS…
***This is only valid if the Spartans win the Big Ten Tourney, which would give MSU two titles in the No. 2 RPI conference.
Uconn hasn’t been the same since Dyson went out. The Huskies have still been solid, but not as tough as they were before. That has to be part of the committee’s discussions. The Huskies won’t have a regular season or conference title this season. And, while UConn’s record is solid at 27-4, but two of those losses have come with Dyson out. So, with the guard out, the Huskies haven’t been nearly as invincible as it was originally thought during midseason.
So, if Louisville wins the Big East tourney and MSU wins the Big Ten Tourney, I think those teams will have done enough to merit the No. 1 seed and Uconn would be the top No. 2 seed… well see if that is what happens.
Posted on March 14th, 2009 at 11:22 am | Comment Permalink@Frank / @John – I’ll re-evaluate USC’s chances after the game today (if they lose). Keep in mind this was posted DURING the Pac-10 game last night when the outcome was still very much in doubt.
Baylor has no chance at an at-large bid.
Posted on March 14th, 2009 at 12:00 pm | Comment Permalink@Christopher … fair point about Dyson. The committee’s consideration of key injuries when seeding cuts both ways. Tough break for UConn though … two games against Pitt plus a 6OT heartbreaker in a semi-road game vs Syracuse.
Posted on March 14th, 2009 at 12:11 pm | Comment PermalinkOK, as the game results roll in, i’ll ask another question to David. Should Auburn play Mississippi State tommorrow, does the loser have a chance at an at-large bid?
Posted on March 14th, 2009 at 1:04 pm | Comment Permalink@ Matty:
How was that a “semi-road” game for UConn? UConn is closer to MSG than Syracuse is, and watching things, I’d say Syracuse had at best a slight advantage in cheering (and that was because of people cheering against UConn rather than for Syracuse)
Posted on March 14th, 2009 at 3:01 pm | Comment PermalinkCreighton, St. Mary’s, and San Diego State combined don’t equal the quality of wins Arizona has accomplished this season. Put the best teams in the field.
Posted on March 14th, 2009 at 8:51 pm | Comment Permalink@Mark … I’ve never seen Syracuse play at MSG in person, but it seems like they are well supported there judging from the crowd noise. In any case, the Orange have played pretty dang well on that court in the past few BigEast tourneys.
Posted on March 14th, 2009 at 9:32 pm | Comment PermalinkDavid – as one of the leading NCAA tournament analysts, let me ask you a quesiton. In your coverage of Davidson, you end it by saying “But there’d be an outcry from all kinds of power-conference teams if Davidson were included.” Why? Because they went 22-10 and finished 6th in their conference? Because they won’t play Davidson at Davidson to prove how much better they really are? Because Davidson has done nothing but try to compete and improve with everything stacked against them – BCS schools not wanting to play them, going undefeated in conference play for almost 4 seasons, playing the only 2 ACC schools that will play them (neither one at home) and winning one and losing the other? Because power-conferences are so used to getting everything because of their raw buying power and finishing 6th (average at best) deserves more?
I’m not saying Davidson deserved to be in the tournament this year…but I am saying that I would rather watch them or any other mid-major for that matter try to beat the schools that won’t play them during the regular season versus watching a team that lost 10+ times during the regular season to these exact teams. So now instead of watching Duke play Maryland for the 4th time, maybe I can watch St Mary’s or Creighton take on the ACC powers. We already know how Maryland does against Duke.
As a leading analyst, can’t we just tell the power-conferences to stop crying. Tell them to start playing competitive mid-majors at the mid-majors. Tell them to finish better than 500 in the conference regular season. Tell them to win the conference tournament just like the mid-major teams. Tell them they have no right to cry about not making the tournament because they already have every major advantage over mid-majors – TV time, recruiting, student body size, school brand, conference power, lower academic standards, alumni base, coaches network, etc. Bottom line is this – every year several teams feel left out. Shouldn’t the teams that get left out be able to say – “we MIGHT be better than the other 10 (mid-majors) at-large bids, but we didn’t take advantage of it and lost 10+ games this year. ” Versus the mid-major that says “we will never know how good we really are this year, because only 3 power-conference schools would play us and we won 1 or 2 of those, but lost 2 conference games and aren’t going to the tournament”.
Posted on March 17th, 2009 at 8:10 am | Comment PermalinkMcKillop has done an amazing job with both coaching the last two seasons and scheduling this year, so this criticism is purely as advice:
Davidson would be much better served skipping the Oklahomas and Dukes of the world and instead setting up home-and-homes with Gonzaga, Creighton, St Mary’s, Dayton, Xavier, Utah, SDSU, New Mexico, UNLV, or other power-mids. It’s nice they’ll get a return game at Hinkle Fieldhouse next year.
If Davidson can go 3-3 in those type of games, they can still get in with a loss in the SoCon Tournament. I agree that it would be nice if power conference teams agreed to play Davidson but the system is just not set up for that and so far Arizona seems to have been the only team in ALL of the Big Six to agree to those kinds of arrangements (SDSU, UNLV, UAB, Houston).
I agree completely that the first round of the Tournament would have been far more exciting with Creighton and St Mary’s on the 12 line instead of Arizona and Wisconsin. But I honestly don’t think Davidson deserved a bid this year.
Posted on March 17th, 2009 at 8:19 am | Comment PermalinkDavid, Congrats on winning the bracket project and doing so well selecting the teams. I missed one team Arizona and I had St. Mary’s in. I still feel that is how it should have gone but what can you do. Again nice job.
Posted on March 20th, 2009 at 5:59 pm | Comment Permalink