Comments on: Bracketography’s 2010 NCAA Tournament Bubble Breakdown

By: longhorn90

longhorn90 — Sun, 14 Mar 2010 23:31:57 +0000

These predictions turned out to be pretty accurate. Great job of analysis.

By: Ricky

Ricky — Sun, 14 Mar 2010 21:19:07 +0000

My final projection:

Minnesota, Louisville, Missouri, and Cal should be safely in so I think the bubble is down to 8 teams (WF, Georgia Tech, Utah St., UTEP, Mississippi St., Illinois, Florida, VT) fighting for 5 spots. Of these Georgia Tech and Wake Forest probably have the most impressive overall profiles so I’ll put them in. Utah St. and UTEP both had had winnning streaks of about 16 in a row so I’ll put them in. I know UTEP hasn’t beaten anyone good this year but winning 16 in a row in the 9th best conference is still impressive.

So in my opinion it’s down to MSU, UF, Illinois, and VT going for the last spot. All of these teams have glaring weaknesses in their profiles and normally would all be out. Illinois has a weak 19-14 record. VT had a really weak schedule. UF only has one good win away from home, and Miss St. didn’t really do anything impressive until the conference tourney. In the end I predict Mississippi St. will get the final bid. Their win over Vandy in a “neutral” site (actually in Nashville i think) was better than anything UF did all season. They split the series with UF, but when they lost it was at UF. They just took a #1 seed down to the wire and they finished hotter than the other bubble teams. I think that in the end they will be in. So my S-Curve would be:

Minnesota
Georgia Tech
Wake Forest
Utah St.
UTEP
Cornell
Siena
Mississippi St.

—————

Florida
Illinois
Virginia Tech
Rhode Island
Ole Miss
USF
Seton Hall

By: Ricky

Ricky — Sun, 14 Mar 2010 21:16:19 +0000

My final projection:

Minnesota
Georgia Tech
Wake Forest
Utah St.
UTEP
Cornell
Siena
Mississippi St.

By: warren friedman

warren friedman — Sun, 14 Mar 2010 21:06:33 +0000

As usual you guys have done an excellent job.

I only have 2 differences – putting Va Tech and Miss St in the final field – and leaving out Minn (I know they have several good wins – but also laid many an egg during the season) and Florida (good wins but lots of mediocre losses)

By: Atticus Finch

Atticus Finch — Sun, 14 Mar 2010 19:37:45 +0000

John,

I’ve got no problem with anyone feeling that UF could get the nod over the competition. My issue was with calling UF a “lock”. They weren’t then and they aren’t now. 95% chance of them being in? Not a chance. And I’m not alone. This composite shows that lots of people project UF out of the dance, for what that’s worth.

http://bracketproject.50webs.com/matrix.htm

As for UF’s resume, I don’t get why everyone is droning on and on about how great the FSU win at home was. It wasn’t a bad win or anything, but it’s not anything great. It was a home win over a 9 loss team with an RPI in the 40s thzt is probably a 9/10 in the tournament. That’s your 3rd best win all season long? Whoop-di-doo.

The SEC has 3 good teams, 3 pretty good teams, and 3 pretty bad teams, and 3 awful teams. UF probably has the best resume of the pretty good teams, but I just don’t think that’s enough. And I do think there is an argument to be made for MSU over UF based on the actual resumes of the teams.

That said, I don’t think MSU is UF’s competition — I don’t think they are dancing either. I think UF’s resume is found lacking against enough bubble teams to keep them out. Teams like Illinois, GT, and WF have more impressive wins than does UF. Yes they have their warts, but they look better to me than does UF.

I would love nothing more than 4+ SEC teams in the tournament, I just don’t think it’s going to happen.

By: Ed Vera

Ed Vera — Sun, 14 Mar 2010 18:56:16 +0000

To me, the tounament needs to be restructured. Why must a team who won the conference championship has to prove it by winning the tournament? To me if you win the conference, automatic bid. The conference tournament should be for those teams that want to impress the select committee. Sometimes I feel that the conference champions loss just to get rest for the tournament games. That is my personal oppinion. The proponents for the 96 tournament team, cheapens the value of the tournament. What happen to the days when only the top 32 teams when. Why does our society, has to have everyone as a winner? Thank you.

By: David Leathem

David Leathem — Sun, 14 Mar 2010 18:01:10 +0000

I appreciate all the attention the Big 12 Has gotten this year, and the emergence as Americas premier conference 2010. I, however do not believe Missouri will be going to the dance, their early exit in the Big 12 tourney coupled with blow out At Mizzo Arena at the hands of KU, to end their regular season makes me wonder if the selection committee will give them the nod. I think they will be NIT bound!

By: John

John — Sun, 14 Mar 2010 15:36:52 +0000

Atticus, I respect your opinions, and, as a fellow SEC fan, am glad you want to see Florida in the field, as you stated before, but why is it you only talk about us getting left home? Yes, yesterday’s events didn’t help, but we did split with Mississippi State, and, as David stated, have a better resume than the Bulldogs Are we going to let their SEC Tournament run make us forget about their lack of quality non-conference wins? In fact, I dare anyone to say these last few teams on the bubble have better non-conference wins than Michigan State and Florida State. Finally, it’s a matter of do you believe the committee when they say they don’t take conference affiliatlon into account when they select, and compare at-large teams.

By: Henry Muto

Henry Muto — Sun, 14 Mar 2010 05:06:20 +0000

There goes another bubble team. So after going through most of championship week with no big surprises we have Houston and New Mexico State win their conf along with Minnesota and Miss State making their league finals. So will UTEP and Utah State get in ? What happens if Minnesota/Miss State win or are they in already ? Things were going so smoothly for champinship week until today with the team that was supposed to win..winning for the most part only St. Mary’s before this was a small surprise and they might have got in anywhere were as Houston and NM State were not getting in.

By: Ricky

Ricky — Sun, 14 Mar 2010 03:37:55 +0000

Hey, I think that Virginia Tech’s and Mississippi’s overall profiles are much less impressive than the other bubble teams if you take a tough look at them. In the ACC every team plays 5 teams twice and the other 6 teams just once. The 5 teams VT played twice, (NCSU, UNC, Miami, Virginia, and BC) were the bottom 5 of the league. They went 7-3 in those games. Wake Forest played a tougher conference sced and Georgia Tech played a much tougher one. And that’s there whole argument on why they should be included is that they went 10-6 in conference, but this makes it look a lot worse.

Mississippi played the other 5 good teams in the SEC 7 times and went 0-7. The only reason they can even still be in the discussion is that they beat Kansas St. and UTEP, but both teams are playing much better basketball now and probably wouldn’t lose to Ole Miss now.

I think right now the bubble is down to 6 teams (Georgia Tech, Wake Forest, Illinois, Minnesota, Mississippi St., and Florida) fighting for 5 spots (assuming Utah St. wins). Virginia Tech, Mississippi, Seton Hall and USF probably have tiny outside shots.