Comments on: Reloading, Part III: The USC Trojans http://www.bracketography.com/features/reloading-part-iii-the-usc-trojans/ NCAA Tournament Predictions and Projections Tue, 06 Jan 2009 13:03:40 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.6.2 By: John http://www.bracketography.com/features/reloading-part-iii-the-usc-trojans/#comment-990 John Wed, 13 Feb 2008 01:57:44 +0000 http://www.bracketography.com/features/reloading-part-iii-the-usc-trojans/#comment-990 @ Christopher Mackinder. Alright, bad example. And i'm actually a Florida fan(grins wide.) @ Christopher Mackinder. Alright, bad example. And i’m actually a Florida fan(grins wide.)

]]> By: Christopher Mackinder http://www.bracketography.com/features/reloading-part-iii-the-usc-trojans/#comment-988 Christopher Mackinder Wed, 13 Feb 2008 01:19:55 +0000 http://www.bracketography.com/features/reloading-part-iii-the-usc-trojans/#comment-988 @ John: I see that you're a huge Big Ten fan (grinning). The Big Ten is a defense-first league but that still means that when a Big Ten team meets a team from another conference, its goal will be to slow the pace (see: Play very tough defense). There is a reason the Pac-10 is still known as an offensively glamorous conference. I do disagree that Big Ten teams struggle against teams that can score. UCLA and Texas are pretty solid offensive teams and the Spartans held each to 68 and 72 points, respectively. As far as Wisconsin goes last year, that was NOT the Wisconsin team that finished the season with 30 wins. When Brian Butch had the gruesome elbow injury against Ohio State toward the close of the Big Ten season, Wisconsin immediately lost most of its luster (That is the main reason the Badgers were a popular upset pick heading into last year's tournament). @ John: I see that you’re a huge Big Ten fan (grinning). The Big Ten is a defense-first league but that still means that when a Big Ten team meets a team from another conference, its goal will be to slow the pace (see: Play very tough defense). There is a reason the Pac-10 is still known as an offensively glamorous conference. I do disagree that Big Ten teams struggle against teams that can score. UCLA and Texas are pretty solid offensive teams and the Spartans held each to 68 and 72 points, respectively.

As far as Wisconsin goes last year, that was NOT the Wisconsin team that finished the season with 30 wins. When Brian Butch had the gruesome elbow injury against Ohio State toward the close of the Big Ten season, Wisconsin immediately lost most of its luster (That is the main reason the Badgers were a popular upset pick heading into last year’s tournament).

]]> By: John http://www.bracketography.com/features/reloading-part-iii-the-usc-trojans/#comment-987 John Wed, 13 Feb 2008 00:53:14 +0000 http://www.bracketography.com/features/reloading-part-iii-the-usc-trojans/#comment-987 @ Christopher Mackinder. I take the numbers of the Big 10 with a grain of salt. They are a defense first league and don't have a balanced team except Indiana. The Big 10 struggles against teams that can score(Wisconsin vs UNLV last year for example.) @ Christopher Mackinder. I take the numbers of the Big 10 with a grain of salt. They are a defense first league and don’t have a balanced team except Indiana.
The Big 10 struggles against teams that can score(Wisconsin vs UNLV last year for example.)

]]> By: Christopher Mackinder http://www.bracketography.com/features/reloading-part-iii-the-usc-trojans/#comment-985 Christopher Mackinder Wed, 13 Feb 2008 00:02:21 +0000 http://www.bracketography.com/features/reloading-part-iii-the-usc-trojans/#comment-985 @ John: According to Kenpom.com, here are the Pac-10's defensive numbers: DEFENSIVE EFFICIENCY Team (Conf) Raw (Rank) Adjusted(Rk) Stanford (P10) 88.4 ( 5) 83.9 ( 4) UCLA (P10) 91.2 ( 17) 85.8 ( 9) Southern California (P10) 93.1 ( 35) 86.8 ( 11) Washington St. (P10) 92.7 ( 31) 88.1 ( 17) Arizona (P10) 101.9 (179) 93.6 ( 59) Arizona St. (P10) 98.2 (100) 93.6 ( 60) Washington (P10) 100.4 (139) 94.3 ( 67) Oregon St. (P10) 102.8 (198) 97.7 (112) California (P10) 104.9 (251) 99.3 (137) Oregon (P10) 105.8 (273) 99.7 (145) (For those unaware, the statistics above show the number of points each team, on average, would allow if the opposing team had 100 possessions. The number in parenthesis is the national rank). Stanford, UCLA and Washington State (and the team of the hour, the USC Trojans) are phenominal defensively. After that, there is no team that plays lock-down defense. Arizona is solid defensively, but nothing to fear. Just as a reference, there are 8 Big Ten teams ranked in the Top 35 of defensive efficiency. So, if the Trojans locked up a No. 6 seed and say Ohio State (15th def. efficiency) was a No. 11 seed, there might be a problem. @ Christian: I'll be the first to say this USC team is very, very dangerous. And while I wouldn't trust my team with Tim Floyd calling the shots, he has done a great job with the Trojans this year. I see a semi-deep run (Sweet 16 or Elite 8) or a first-round flameout. @ John:

According to Kenpom.com, here are the Pac-10’s defensive numbers:

DEFENSIVE EFFICIENCY
Team (Conf) Raw (Rank) Adjusted(Rk)
Stanford (P10) 88.4 ( 5) 83.9 ( 4)
UCLA (P10) 91.2 ( 17) 85.8 ( 9)
Southern California (P10) 93.1 ( 35) 86.8 ( 11)
Washington St. (P10) 92.7 ( 31) 88.1 ( 17)
Arizona (P10) 101.9 (179) 93.6 ( 59)
Arizona St. (P10) 98.2 (100) 93.6 ( 60)
Washington (P10) 100.4 (139) 94.3 ( 67)
Oregon St. (P10) 102.8 (198) 97.7 (112)
California (P10) 104.9 (251) 99.3 (137)
Oregon (P10) 105.8 (273) 99.7 (145)

(For those unaware, the statistics above show the number of points each team, on average, would allow if the opposing team had 100 possessions. The number in parenthesis is the national rank).

Stanford, UCLA and Washington State (and the team of the hour, the USC Trojans) are phenominal defensively. After that, there is no team that plays lock-down defense. Arizona is solid defensively, but nothing to fear.

Just as a reference, there are 8 Big Ten teams ranked in the Top 35 of defensive efficiency. So, if the Trojans locked up a No. 6 seed and say Ohio State (15th def. efficiency) was a No. 11 seed, there might be a problem.

@ Christian: I’ll be the first to say this USC team is very, very dangerous. And while I wouldn’t trust my team with Tim Floyd calling the shots, he has done a great job with the Trojans this year. I see a semi-deep run (Sweet 16 or Elite 8) or a first-round flameout.

]]> By: John http://www.bracketography.com/features/reloading-part-iii-the-usc-trojans/#comment-978 John Tue, 12 Feb 2008 15:27:10 +0000 http://www.bracketography.com/features/reloading-part-iii-the-usc-trojans/#comment-978 @ Christian. They won't be facing defenses in the NCAA Tournament like they are facing in the Pac-10. They'll be more ''grown up'' and offensively, they'll be a whole lot better. @ Christian. They won’t be facing defenses in the NCAA Tournament like they are facing in the Pac-10. They’ll be more ”grown up” and offensively, they’ll be a whole lot better.

]]> By: Christian http://www.bracketography.com/features/reloading-part-iii-the-usc-trojans/#comment-976 Christian Tue, 12 Feb 2008 14:42:16 +0000 http://www.bracketography.com/features/reloading-part-iii-the-usc-trojans/#comment-976 Has there ever been a team that has as much potential to reach the Final Four as it does to flame out in the first round? So Cal's defense is solid but they struggle so much offensively at times that any good defensive team they might play in the first round (some possible examples based on projected seeding: Mississippi State, Arkansas, Ohio State, BYU, VCU) could shut the Trojans down. @ John - The way USC played Memphis and Kansas is pretty impressive. But when you factor in the way USC played against California and in both games against Wash State (terrible performances), it is tough to tell which Trojan team you'll get on a given night. Has there ever been a team that has as much potential to reach the Final Four as it does to flame out in the first round? So Cal’s defense is solid but they struggle so much offensively at times that any good defensive team they might play in the first round (some possible examples based on projected seeding: Mississippi State, Arkansas, Ohio State, BYU, VCU) could shut the Trojans down.

@ John - The way USC played Memphis and Kansas is pretty impressive. But when you factor in the way USC played against California and in both games against Wash State (terrible performances), it is tough to tell which Trojan team you’ll get on a given night.

]]> By: John http://www.bracketography.com/features/reloading-part-iii-the-usc-trojans/#comment-919 John Sat, 09 Feb 2008 03:21:49 +0000 http://www.bracketography.com/features/reloading-part-iii-the-usc-trojans/#comment-919 @ Christopher Mackinder. Yep this team is finding its stride. Too bad Nick Young left for the NBA early. If Mayo can find a good, consistent shooting rhythm, this team can at least reach the Sweet 16 again. I like Jefferson. He reminds me of Texas A&M's DeAndre Jordan: loads of talent and potential, but has not progressed the way he probably should have. This team is a great defensive team. Anyone who can hold down Memphis and Kansas the way they did(plus they defeated Oklahoma) tells me they are already elite defensively. I find younger teams pick up defense a lot quicker than offense simply because they need to get used to each other, where to shoot, learn the system the coach is running and so on. Defense is about effort, positioning and commitment to playing it, because defense may not be on SportsCenter, but it can win you championships. @ Christopher Mackinder. Yep this team is finding its stride. Too bad Nick Young left for the NBA early. If Mayo can find a good, consistent shooting rhythm, this team can at least reach the Sweet 16 again. I like Jefferson. He reminds me of Texas A&M’s DeAndre Jordan: loads of talent and potential, but has not progressed the way he probably should have. This team is a great defensive team. Anyone who can hold down Memphis and Kansas the way they did(plus they defeated Oklahoma) tells me they are already elite defensively. I find younger teams pick up defense a lot quicker than offense simply because they need to get used to each other, where to shoot, learn the system the coach is running and so on. Defense is about effort, positioning and commitment to playing it, because defense may not be on SportsCenter, but it can win you championships.

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