This is the final update for 2012, and we’re looking forward to the Selection Show in half an hour.

The last game is Ohio State vs. Michigan State in the Big Ten championship. Currently, Ohio State is projected as a #1 seed and Michigan State as a #2 seed. If Michigan State win, their positions in the bracket will swap. Otherwise, this would be the final NCAA bracket 2012 prediction.

We’ll have more analysis later, once the final bracket is set, and the Selection Show has finished.

The new NCAA bracket takes into account all games played through Saturday. This means there are only four games left which could affect the bracket, and contingency plans exist for all of them. Though the contingency plan for a Florida State win over North Carolina is “re-bracket most of the field,” so we’ll be rooting for the Tar Heels on Sunday.

You may be surprised that Ohio State moved onto the top line. That’s because this bracket assumes the Buckeyes will beat Michigan State. If the Spartans win instead, the two teams will be flipped. If we were truly bracketing the field based on current resumes, Kansas would likely keep a #1 seed. But one of those two Big Ten teams will have a significantly better resume in about 12 hours.

The only team playing on Sunday that’s not already in the Bracketography at large field is St. Bonaventure. If the Bonnies win, NC State likely drops out of the NCAA bracket (though there’s a chance this could change once we review the bubble again after a good night’s sleep).

Yesterday’s slate created a ton of movement, as it seemed like every team on the 1o line through the bubble played, and a lot of them lost. Plenty of squads moved up a line or two simply because they didn’t play, while their fellow at large hopefuls took dubious losses.

Entering the bracket:

• #12 North Carolina State is in, thanks to a win over #11 Virginia. Fellow ACC member Miami is out, mostly thanks to a loss to Florida State.
• #12 Seton Hall enters the bracket despite not playing, thanks to losses by many other bubble teams. Mississippi State drops out. Their loss to Georgia is looking worse, while Seton Hall’s loss to Louisville is looking better.
• #13 Arizona is in as the new projected autobid winner in the Pac-12. Washington is, somewhat amazingly, out.
• #14 New Mexico State is in as the new projected autobid winner in the WAC. Nevada is out.
• #16 Lamar is in as the new projected autobid winner in the Southland Conference. Texas-Arlington is out.

The current last teams out: Mississippi, Mississippi State, Northwestern, Marshall.

There was some shuffling of the top seeds and their regions, as well. The loss by Kansas dropped them behind North Carolina for fourth overall, which means they’d be headed out west to Phoenix. Kentucky then heads to St. Louis (which is actually closer to Lexington than Atlanta is), and North Carolina to Atlanta. There is a distinct chance that the winner of the Big Ten title game takes the last #1 seed. We’ll re-evaluate with fresh eyes tomorrow morning.

There was absolutely no movement on the top eight seed lines, as nearly all the games of the past couple days have involved bubble teams or worse. The few protected seeds that played since the NCAA bracket was last updated have all emerged victorious.

So, let’s take a look at the lower seeds.

Three teams won their conference tournaments to capture automatic bids: Detroit (Horizon), Lehigh (Patriot), and Western Kentucky (Sun Belt). They knock out three former projected autobids: Valparaiso, Bucknell, and North Texas.

Two other at large teams fell out of the the bracket: Northwestern and Seton Hall. Northwestern lost their Big Ten tournament opener today, falling in overtime to Minnesota. That was enough to push them into the first four out. Seton Hall, meanwhile, beat Providence, but lost to Louisville. They fell out partly because they wasted an opportunity for a big win, but also because upon further review, I think Drexel and Miami are both on the right side of the bubble, and somebody had to go.

As mentioned above, Drexel and Miami FL round out the new additions to the 2012 March Madness bracket prediction.

The last four out today: Seton Hall, Tennessee, Northwestern, Oregon

The next four out: Dayton, North Carolina State, St. Joseph’s, Iona

At this point we’re starting to see some conference tournaments end, and actual invitations to the the 2012 NCAA tournament are being handed out. The following teams were included because they won their conference tournament:

• Belmont Bruins (Atlantic Sun)
• Creighton Bluejays (Missouri Valley)
• Davidson Wildcats (Southern)
• Loyola-Maryland Greyhounds (MAAC)
• Murray St. Racers (Ohio Valley)
• NC-Asheville Bulldogs (Big South)
• St. Mary’s Gaels (WCC)
• VCU Rams (Colonial)

A few thoughts on the current March Madness bracket:

• The Big East has a ridiculous 10 teams in the bracket, which A) makes it very difficult to follow the guidelines issued to the selection committee regarding avoiding conference matchups, and B) is unlikely to actually be the case when the official 2012 NCAA tournament bracket is released. Both South Florida and Seton Hall are currently listed in play-in games, which means they are among the last four in. However, the bubble is likely to shrink at some point as dark horses win a couple conference tournament, which will eliminate one or both of their spots.
• North Carolina moves onto the #1 seed line after thrashing Duke on the road. While it’s true that the RPI doesn’t take into account margin of victory, the selection committee members do use the eye test, and most of their eyeballs were probably watching UNC dismantle a possible #2 seed.
• Kentucky and Syracuse are the only #1 seeds set in stone. If Kansas and/or UNC get beaten badly, especially at the hands of Missouri or Duke, they could slip.
• A fourth Mountain West team — Colorado State — slipped into the March Madness bracket this week. The Rams beat UNLV at home and took care of business at Air Force. They probably need to at least beat TCU in their first MWC tournament game to have a shot at an at large. After that, it depends upon the opponent — a win over San Diego State and they might just lock themselves up a bid.

The NCAA bracket has been on a weekly update schedule, but we’ll be revisiting it more frequently this week, and will have a final 2012 bracket prediction Sunday before the 2012 NCAA Tournament Selection Show airs.

A few thoughts:

• That one seed that we said would go to either Missouri or Kansas? It’s looking like it may be headed Kansas’s way, given Missouri’s home loss to Kansas State.
• Ohio State continues their downward slide, and is no longer even the top-rated team from the Big Ten, as Michigan State takes their place. The Spartans still have a shot at a #1 seed, but the last one may end up going to Duke.
• It’s unlikely that there will be a playoff game between two #13 seeds, but remember that some of those conference tourney winners projected in the #11 and #12 seed lines will get upset, moving the last at larges up a seed line.
• Similarly, Nevada would be a very strong #15 seed. They’ve already knocked off a couple of Pac-12 teams (Washington and Arizona State), and they played UNLV close on the road. But some surprise conference tourney winners will probably be slotted below them, bumping them up to #14 (assuming they take care of business themselves).

This bracket hasn’t been scrubbed for rematches. So if you catch a mistake, please leave a comment, and it will be fixed as soon as possible.

A few thoughts:

• It’s beginning to look like one of the #1 seeds is almost guaranteed to go to Missouri or Kansas, unless both stumble down the stretch.
• Ohio State seemed in great shape, but a home loss is pretty damaging. If they don’t win the Big Ten regular season, they could easily slip down to a #2 seed.
• It’s unlikely that there will be a playoff game between two #13 seeds, but remember that some of those conference tourney winners projected in the #11 and #12 seed lines will get upset, moving the last at larges up a seed line.
• Similarly, Davidson would be a very strong #15 seed. They already knocked of Kansas, after all. But some surprise conference tourney winners will probably be slotted below them, bumping them up to #14 (assuming they take care of business themselves).
• The Big Ten had an amazing 9 teams. It sounds crazy on the face of it, but once you dive into actual performance, it seems fair. Then again, in a real bracket, Northwestern would likely be out, as their spot would be gobbled up by some surprise major conference tournament winners.

A little more time was spent on actually bracketing teams this week, to try to avoid the re-match problems that were in last week’s bracket. But nobody’s perfect, so if you catch a mistake, please leave a comment, and it will be fixed as soon as possible.

Three of the four #1 seeds are clear — Syracuse, Kentucky, and Ohio State have shown themselves to be a cut above the rest, and have amassed impressive resumes. Competition for the last #1 seed is fierce, with the winner of the Big 12 or ACC will likely snag it. At this point, it’s a very close call, but Missouri has the slight edge because they have fewer losses than Duke or Kansas.

Baylor may be out of the running for a #1 seed now, given that they’ve been handled easily by Kansas twice. Unless they win the Big 12 Tournament and return the favor, it’s difficult to imagine the Bears grabbing a #1 seed over the Jayhawks.

The same may be true of North Carolina, given their home loss to Duke. If they don’t win on the road in Cameron, it’ll be tough for them to leapfrog the Blue Devils for a #1 seed.

I’ll start with what I see as the positives of this bracket:

• - I love that mid-majors like Butler, Old Dominion, and George Mason were rewarded with really nice seeds.  Their slightly more powerful A-10 brethren Xavier and Temple were also given plenty of respect.
• - The Committee punished Virginia Tech once again for not winning any marquee out-of-conference games.
• - Honestly, I have no problems with VCU getting a bid.  The Rams played a solid non-conference schedule, had 14 wins in a very good CAA *note, this includes the CAA Tournament, and won their Bracket Buster.  It’s who they lost to late in the season that might have kept them out.
• - Duke did not get any favors from the Committee, despite being given a #1 seed.
• - Really happy to see San Diego State get a de facto #1 out west.  Kudos to Steve Fisher et al for a great year.
• - Georgia coach Mark Fox is not on suicide watch after his unfortunate timeout in the SEC Championship quarterfinal.
• - The Big East teams were seeded and sorted more-or-less appropriately.  This was an extremely difficult task, I can assure you.
• - Nice to see USC in the field.  The Committee surely took into account the fact that three of this team’s bad losses occurred without its #2 scorer, Jio Fontan, prior to becoming eligible to play as a transfer.

Now, onto the surprising, and in some cases WTF-type outcomes:

• I’ve NEVER been more shocked about a team getting left OUT of the bracket than not to see Colorado’s name called.  I feel really bad for Tad Boyle and his team.  The Buffs beat a 5-seeded team THREE TIMES, in addition to a #4 and a #11 and were not rewarded.  The computer said their non conference strength of schedule was weak, but in actuality it wasn’t that bad…Harvard, Georgia, Colorado State, New Mexico, and Indiana (not supposed to be as bad as they were).
• If Georgia gets a #10 seed, how does Alabama, which beat them twice in the last week, not get into the field?  To rely solely on RPI seems completely foolish.
• Clemson and UAB both had a paltry number of Top-50 wins…as Jay Bilas pointed out, Harvard had a better resume than either of these teams (although I had Clemson in the projected field, they would not have gotten my vote in the Committee room).
• A 12 for Utah State seems pretty harsh.
• Not once, but twice, we have the opportunity to see Big East vs. Big East in the second round.  IN THE SECOND ROUND!  I know there are 11 teams to think about, but this is just lazy.
• Shocked to see Richmond end up on the #12 line.  This can only mean they would not have been in the field had Dayton won the A-10 championship today.
• Clearly no respect for the Big 12, with Texas getting a 4, Missouri an 11, and Colorado an NIT…but Kansas State as a 5?  How does that factor in?
• The Big Ten bubble teams were dramatically overseeded.  Especially Michigan and Illinois on the 8-9 lines.

And finally, probably the most absurd comment I’ve ever heard a Selection Committee chair make in his post-bracket CBS interview…from Gene Smith…”We look at 15 criteria in evaluating teams…you know, things like who you played, where you played them…style of play…those kinds of things.”  Style of play.  Wow.  No wonder I was so far off with my projections this year…I must have overlooked that one in the Bracketing Principles and Procedures…

At any rate, I look forward to hearing your thoughts in the comments below…but enjoy the games, everyone, it’s going to be a terrific Tournament as usual!