MIDWEST REGION EAST REGION
WEST REGION SOUTH REGION

1) The team with the most individual talent does not always win the national championship. In fact, in recent Tournament history, it only seems to happen about half the time. North Carolina won in ’05 with Sean May, Ray Felton, and Rashad McCants. The Huskies won in ’04, led by Emeka Okafor and Ben Gordon, but Syracuse upset Kansas to win in ’03. Two balanced teams made the final in ‘02, with Maryland winning the battle with Indiana after the Hoosiers had knocked off a loaded Duke team in the Sweet 16. The Blue Devils won in ’01 behind NBA-level stars Shane Battier, Jayson Williams, and Mike Dunleavy, but Michigan State won behind its teamwork in 2000, while more talented Duke and Arizona made early exits. Last year, North Carolina clearly had the most talent and cut down the nets in Detroit.  This year, it’s probably Kansas–though Kentucky is close–and the Jayhawks should make the Final Four…but if things hold to form, we’re due for a bit of an unheralded winner.

2) Don’t pick all four #1 seeds to reach the Final Four. 2008 was the only year this has happened in the modern era (since 1985) and history is not likely to repeat itself anytime soon.

3) Historically, 7-10 affairs have been almost as evenly matched as 8-9 games. Don’t be afraid to pick two of the #10 seeds to get to the second round—or more (see item #4).

4) #10 seeds make great sleepers. Even office pool veterans might find this one surprising—I’m not sure why it doesn’t get the same amount of media hype as the ever-reliable 5-12 upset…2006 and 2007 were the first times since 1996 that at least one #10 seed didn’t reach the Sweet 16. Kent State and Gonzaga have even made the Elite Eight as a #10 in relatively recent memory, along with everyone’s favorite, Davidson, in 2008.   Best chance for a #10 sleeper this year is probably Georgia Tech.

5) It’s not just mid-major Cinderellas that do well with double-digit seeds. Like their little brothers, major-conference schools among the last at-large teams selected also have an uncanny record of winning at least one game in the NCAA Tournament. Examples: Texas A&M 2006, NC State 2005, Auburn 2003, Missouri 2002, Georgetown 2001, to name a few. Villanova made a great run to the Sweet 16 in 2008.  Arizona did in last year.  Teams that fit the profile in this year’s Tournament? Again…Georgia Tech and perhaps Washington out in San Jose.

6) Free throw percentages matter. What all of your favorite buzzer-beating highlights from previous Tournaments DON’T show is the number of times the losing team has missed one or more free throws prior to the victors’ heroics. Memphis’ foul shooting wasn’t an issue until the final few minutes of the final game last year, but it did finally jump up and bite the Tigers.  Look for the teams that shoot well from the foul line, and especially well in the clutch.  Among contenders, BYU (best in the nation at 79%) and Duke lead the way, with Villanova, Butler, Marquette and Wisconsin also highly rated. Texas and Florida State are causes for concern.  Kentucky has really struggled with one-and-ones in pressure situations at times this season.

7) Teams that get to the charity stripe can save themselves on a cold shooting night. If the shots aren’t falling, who can get to the rim? Among the national leaders in free throw attempts: Kansas State, New Mexico, Gonzaga, and Washington.  And oh yes, Kentucky.  What the Wildcats lack in quality they make up for in quantity.

8) Pick Duke to reach the Sweet 16—at least. Love ‘em or hate ‘em, the Blue Devils have made the third round of the Tournament 10 years in the last 12 (though they’ve missed two of the last four). Nevertheless, Coach K is a terrific in-game coach, and Duke has a pretty good draw this year.

9) Look for teams with clutch players. Kentucky’s John Wall, West Virginia’s Da’Sean Butler, Ohio State’s Evan Turner, Michigan State’s Kalin Lucas, and Kansas’ Sherron Collins make up my “All-Clutch” Starting Five. And don’t forget that mid-majors can have these guys, too—Richmond’s David Gonsalvez, and San Diego State’s Billy White are just a few mid-major stars who have been unbelievable in late-game situations throughout their careers.

10) Remember that the East, South and Midwest Regional Finals, as well as the Final Four, are played in massive domes. After playing in traditional college gyms all season, it’s often difficult for players to adjust their depth perception when shooting in a supersized arena that seats 40,000+. The team with the most experience playing in domes might be Syracuse…so if the Orange make it to Indianapolis, they could be very dangerous.

11) The Mountain West hasn’t gotten enough publicity this year. BYU, UNLV, San Diego State, and New Mexico have been battle-tested in the rugged conference.  I’m taking all except UNLV to win their first round games.

12) Don’t drive yourself crazy picking the early-round games—it’s far more important to get the Final Four correct. In a traditional bracket pool, you’ll earn the same number of points for picking two Final Four members than for predicting all of the first-round games combined. Spend most of your time analyzing who’s going to make an extended run rather than obsessing about one or two 8-9 or 5-12 matchups.

13) Look at your predicted national champion’s schedule to see if it has won six-plus games in a row during the regular season. If it hasn’t, there’s little reason to believe that team can win six straight games with everything on the line.

14) Defense doesn’t always win championships in college hoops, but it can certainly win you a couple of games. Florida State, Temple, Duke, Kansas, Purdue, Wisconsin, Tennessee, Clemson, and Kentucky are all in the top 10 nationally in terms of adjusted defensive efficiency.

15) The final score of the championship game is often lower than you might expect. I’m throwing this one in because the combined final score is the traditional tie-breaking method in most office pools. Nerves often lead to poor shooting and increased turnovers, especially early in the game, so err a few points on the low side of your initial guess.

16) If all else fails, ask your spouse or significant other who he/she would pick. (That is, unless you’re in the same pool.)

Good luck, everyone, and enjoy the games!

However, I found a number of seedings completely bizarre.

Surprises:

Temple: There is no way the Owls are a 5-seed. This team won the A-10 regular season AND postseason Tournament and beat Villanova and Siena in the non-conference season.  And to put them against a very dangerous #12 seed in Cornell, when Michigan State gets overseeded New Mexico State in another region, adds insult to injury.

California: I thought the Bears would get plenty of lobby from Dan Guerrero, but an 8 seed?  When teams with comparable resumes like UTEP and Utah State are seeded as 12s (which I don’t have a problem with), how do you look at the Bears as four spots better?  Let alone a spot ahead of Northern Iowa!

San Diego State / UNLV: These teams basically had the same wins, and SDSU won the tie-breaker on UNLV’s home court last night.  The only possible explanation is that the Committee seeded the Rebels and Aztecs on Saturday morning, before the Mountain West Final.  But if that was the case, why not swap them based on the outcome?

Wake Forest: How does a 9-8 team in a very down ACC get into an 8-9 game?  Only if they’d finished strongly…had they lost to Clemson the last game of the year, they might have missed the Tournament entirely!

A few final thoughts:

• The Committee broke its own seeding rules TWICE in placing West Virginia and Marquette, and Villanova and Notre Dame in the same subregionals.  I understand the Big East was very good this year, but surely Notre Dame and Marquette were not natural #6 seeds.  Oh, wait. Apparently they were.  Part of this was caused by putting Villanova at a 2, which was also bizarre.
• Purdue was seeded appropriately as 4 after the injury to Robbie Hummel.  But why not put them in Kansas’ region as the weakest overall #4? Instead, Kansas has to run a possible gamut of Maryland/Mich State, Georgetown, and possibly Syracuse to make the national championship game.
• There’s no way Duke had a better resume than Syracuse.  I actually would have been fine with West Virginia as the #1 in the South and Syracuse in the West.  But not Duke.
• Duke may have to go through both Texas A&M and Baylor in Houston to make the Final Four, not exactly an easy road for a supposed #1 seed.

Would love to hear your comments below.

Bubble Math:

1) A team is only a “lock” if its chance of making the NCAA Tournament as an at-large is better than 95%.
I really don’t like moving teams out of “lock” status because they’ve lost four games in a row.

2) 31 teams earn automatic bids to the NCAA Tournament.

3) 34 teams earn at-large slots to the NCAA Tournament.

4) There are currently 27 automatic bids/one-bid leagues, 31 locks, and leaving a total of 8 open slots.  Of those 8, four are pretty well spoken for, and four are in serious question.

Locks (30):

ACC (4): Duke, Maryland, Clemson, Florida State
Big East (7+auto): Syracuse, Villanova, Georgetown, Pittsburgh, Marquette, Notre Dame
Big Ten (4+auto): Purdue, Michigan State, Ohio State, Wisconsin
Big 12 (6+auto): Kansas State, Baylor, Texas A&M, Missouri, Texas, Oklahoma State
Pac-10: NONE
SEC (3): Kentucky, Vanderbilt, Tennessee
Atlantic-10 (2+auto): Temple, Richmond, Xavier
Mountain West (3+auto): New Mexico, BYU, UNLV
Other: Gonzaga

Auto Bids (27): Murray State, Lehigh, Old Dominion, Siena, Wofford, Oakland, Montana, Robert Morris, North Texas, Butler, Saint Mary’s, Cornell, ETSU, Winthrop, Northern Iowa, Ohio, Arkansas Pine Bluff, Vermont, UCSB, Morgan State, Sam Houston, New Mexico State, Houston, SDSU, Washington, West Virginia, Kansas

Should Be Safe (4):

Minnesota (70%)

Take a look at the projected scalps on Minnesota’s resume (6, 2, 5, 11, 6, 4) N-Butler, Ohio State, Wisconsin, @Illinois, N-Michigan State, N-Purdue. Had they won in Ann Arbor in their last true road game of the year, the Gophers would be a mortal lock. But they’ve clearly leapfrogged Illinois, Virginia Tech, Mississippi State, Georgia Tech, and Florida on my S-Curve.

Cal (60%)

I can’t see the regular-season champion of the #8 conference, which made the final of its conference tournament and played a very competitive game against a Bubble team, getting left home, particularly with the Bears’ insanely high RPI.  Would I vote the Bears in the field if I were in the Committee room?  Perhaps not, but I can’t see the Committee leaving these guys home.

Utah State (57.5%)

Aggies put up a very poor performance against the “other” Aggies last night out in Reno.  Shot selection down the stretch was questionable to say the least.  Still, USU does have a marquee win on its slate (BYU) that Cal and UTEP don’t have, and finished the season very, very strong.

Louisville (55%)

Yes, beating Syracuse twice was great, but the Cardinals were also helped dramatically by Notre Dame’s run through the Big East Tournament–the only other Tournament-quality team they beat.  I think the Cards will be safely in but their seed could suffer.

The Real Bubble (7 teams for 4 slots):

UTEP (55%)

Tournament-caliber wins: none.  I can’t make any logical argument for UTEP’s inclusion–they haven’t beaten a single team in the Tournament field–but it’s just a gut feeling that the Miners will not be left home.

Wake Forest (55%)

Tournament-caliber wins: @Gonzaga, Richmond, Xavier, Maryland, Georgia Tech, Clemson.  On paper that looks great.  The problem is that Wake has stumbled to a 9-8 overall ACC finish and got absolutely smoked by bottom-feeding Miami in its first-round game.  This is a team that is extremely lucky that “how you finish” is no longer a Selection Committee criterion in 2010.

Illinois (52.5%)

Tournament-caliber wins: @Clemson, Vanderbilt, Michigan State, @Wisconsin, N-Wisconsin, 2OT loss to Ohio State.  Outside of William & Mary, no Bubble team has done better winning away from home, which is what I think the Committee relies on as its key criterion in these 50-50 situations.  Chair Dan Guerrero said yesterday that the Committee was watching games during their break, right about the time Illinois went on its run against OSU at the end of regulation.  They surely passed the “eye test” but will that be enough to convince the Committee of their worthiness…perhaps not if Georgia Tech and Mississippi State both pull upsets today.

Georgia Tech (52.5%)

Tournament-caliber wins: Siena, Duke, Clemson, Wake Forest, N-Maryland. That’s only one win against the top half of the bracket, no true quality road wins.  Only 7-9 in regular season; now assured of a 10-10 overall finish at worst.  That’s why I have Georgia Tech as my last team in the field.

———-NEED TO HELP THEMSELVES————-

Florida (49.5%)

Before yesterday’s antics in the WAC, Pac-10, Big Ten, CUSA, and ACC, I thought the Gators would be several teams into the field.  But on closer inspection, it’s going to come down to the wire. I do think their overall resume is better than Mississippi State’s, but reasonable minds can differ.  I would not fault the Committee either way for their decision on the Gators

Mississippi State (47.5%)

N-ODU. Eight R/N wins. 10-7 in the SEC.  Not a single win against the top of the SEC East. Without beating Tennessee at home in the last game of the year, the Bulldogs’ resume looks more like a prototypical mid-major bubble team’s than a division champion’s. But they got the win they desperately needed against Florida yesterday.  Vandy was great.  Still only the Bulldogs’ second top-50 RPI win.  Not sure it’s enough.

Virginia Tech (50%)

Before Hokie fans get excited about a 20-win season, VaTech’s non-conference SOS is 340.  Let’s think about that.  They lost their only game against a decent opponent (Temple) by 11. It was a dreadful job of scheduling.  If the Hokies are left home next week, I do not want to hear Seth Greenberg whining about being snubbed by the Committee again.  @Georgia Tech was an elimination game, and the Hokies survived…but faltered against Miami in the ACC Tournament.  They did beat Seton Hall on a neutral floor, but other wins against Tournament-level teams were all at home.  If anything, VaTech might have been rooting FOR the Yellow Jackets tonight to make sure they had a road win over a Tournament team. But a GaTech win today almost certainly boots them out of the field.

———-NEED SOME HELP————-

William & Mary (40%)

Well, well, well…the Tribe made the CAA Final after squeaking out a two-point victory over Northeastern.  Yes, they have some terrible losses, but given how weak the rest of the bubble was–prior to all the upsets on Saturday–there’s still an outside chance for W&M to get in as an at-large.

NIT: Charlotte, UConn, UAB, Memphis, Saint Louis, Arizona State, VCU, Dayton, Rhode Island, Cincinnati, Seton Hall, South Florida, Ole Miss

Bad losses: at Connecticut, at Oklahoma 

Strengths

Scoring: One problem that the Longhorns do not have is putting the ball in the basket. Texas scored 81.2 points per game in the regular season and has have a number of weapons and athletic players. Senior Damion James averaged a double-double in the regular season (18 points, 10.4 rebounds). Freshman Avery Bradley was second in scoring (11.7 points, 2.9 rebounds and 2.1 assists). Along with James, Dexter Pittman made up a formidable low-post game. Pittman averaged 10.6 and 5.8 rebounds. The Longhorns as a team are very good on the glass, averaging 44.8 rebounds per game. 

Weaknesses

No true identity: Pittman and James are the Longhorns’ two low-post players. Besides those two players, no one else on the team has a true position. The biggest problem with Texas’ struggles this season has been that players do not know their roles. After point guard Dogus Balbay went down with a season-ending injury, the identity problem has become worse.

Balbay led the team with 3.9 assists but since his injury, the Longhorns haven’t shared the ball particularly well. The next highest assist total during the regular season was J’Covan Brown, who averaged 2.4 per game. Freshmen Jordan Hamilton and Bradley are very athletic and have great potential, but they never found their true positions this season. Their struggles are apparent by their field-goal percentages. Bradley shot 43.9 percent from the field, while Hamilton shot 40.8. 

Other factors: It seems like years since Texas was ranked No. 1 in the country back in January. It is safe to say that the Longhorns may be the most disappointing team in the nation this season, considering their best two players in James and Pittman are seniors. Th team had some good wins this season, specifically against Pittsburgh and Michigan State, but those came before Christmas. The Longhorns had two bad losses at Connecticut and at Oklahoma. They will probably be a seven or eight seed in the NCAA Tournament. 

NCAA Tournament Prediction: First Round. Texas is 5-5 in its last 10 games and it doesn’t look like their play is improving heading into the tournament. The Longhorns definitely can win a game but the Sweet 16 is a stretch. This team just hasn’t been able to put it together all season and the lack of a true point guard hurts a lot.

Bad losses: none 

Strengths

Coaching: Mark Turgeon and his Aggies are one of the most successful programs in the country that no one talks about. They will be making their third consecutive trip to the NCAA Tournament under Turgeon’s team has advanced past the first round in each of the past two seasons. Overall, Texas A&M will be making its fifth straight trip to the NCAA Tournament and achieved its sixth consecutive 20-win season.

Donald Sloan and Bryan Davis: Together, these two players make up a good one-two combo for the Aggies. Sloan, a senior guard, is the leader and go-to man on the team. He averaged 18 points, 3.6 rebounds and 2.3 assists in the regular season. Davis is the man in the middle and averaged 9.8 points and 7.9 rebounds while shooting 49.8 percent from the field.  

Weaknesses

Offense: Plain and simple, overall the Aggies are offensively challenged. They only averaged 71 points per game in the regular season, shot 44.2 percent from the field, 65.7 percent from the free-throw line, 33.6 percent from three, and averaged just 12.2 assists. The only good stat on offense for Texas A&M is it turned the ball over only 12.2 times a game.  

Other factors: The Aggies resume is very good. Their RPI (11) and strength of schedule (6) should allow them to get a pretty high seed in the NCAA Tournament. They also have a good amount of quality wins and no bad losses all year. They should be a five or six seed in the tournament. 

NCAA Tournament prediction: Second Round. This would be the third consecutive year the Aggies would get knocked out in the second round. They are fundamentally sound and play pretty good defense, which should allow them to be safe in the first round. But their poor offensive numbers speak for themselves and anything past the second round would be a stretch.

Bad losses: at Oklahoma 

Strengths

James Anderson. The Big 12 Player of the Year is the real deal. In the regular season he averaged 22.5 points, 5.9 rebounds and 2.4 assists. He carried the Cowboys to their win over Kansas, scoring 28 points. He also shoots 81.1 percent from the free-throw line. He is the kind of player who can score from anywhere on the floor and single-handedly carry his team to one or two wins in the NCAA Tournament. 

Weaknesses

Big men: Oklahoma State does not rebound the ball well. The Cowboys averaged 38.4 rebounds in the regular season, which ranked at the bottom of the Big 12. The biggest guy in their starting lineup is 6-8 Matt Pilgrim, who averages 6.8 rebounds per game. Marshall Moses leads the team in rebounds, averaging 8.4 rebounds in the regular season. 

Sharing the ball: The Cowboys only averaged 12.5 assists per game, which also ranked at the bottom of the Big 12. The problem stems from the lack of a true point guard. Keiton Page is the team’s unofficial point guard, but he only averaged 2.6 assists in the regular season. Anderson works as the team’s point/forward. His only weakness may be that he tries to take the Cowboys on his shoulders a little too much, taking the majority of the team’s shots, which often results in the other Cowboys players standing around a lot, thus the low assist rate on the team. Ray Penn leads the team with three assists per game. 

Other factors: The Cowboys have some great wins this season. They’ve defeated the top four teams in the Big 12, which includes a win over No. 1 Kansas and a road win at Kansas State. They should be between a seven and nine seed in the NCAA Tournament. 

NCAA Tournament Prediction: Second Round. Anytime a team has a prolific scorer like Anderson, a team can make a run. He has the ability to take the Cowboys on his back, but Oklahoma State doesn’t have a whole lot of strength outside of him. They have no post game and don’t rebound or pass the ball well. The Sweet 16 is a stretch but can be attainable with the right matchup, but the more likely scenario is the second round or possibly even getting knocked out in their first game.

Nines

Old Dominion (CAA)
Clemson
UNLV
Utah State (WAC)

Tens

Missouri
Minnesota
Washington (Pac-10)
Florida State

Elevens

UTEP
Louisville
Wake Forest
California

Twelves

Siena (MAAC)
Cornell (Ivy)
Illinois
Georgia Tech

The (Un?)lucky Thirteen

Florida

Bad losses: at Georgia, at South Carolina, vs. South Alabama

Strengths

Balanced Scoring: All five of the Gator starters average at least 10 points per game. None of the starters are seniors, so this group can get even better next year. Kenny Boynton leads the team, scoring 13.5 points a game. Little man Ervin Walker stands at 5’8” and runs the show. He is one of the quickest players in the country, averaging 12.7 points and five assists. The Gators are also solid underneath with Alex Tyus and Vernon Macklin. Tyus averages seven rebounds and Macklin averages 5.6 while shooting 60.9 percent from the field.

Clutch Shooter: The Gators’ other starter is junior Chandler Parsons, who serves as Florida’s go-to guy in the clutch. He is the only player in the country who has hit two buzzer shots this season: He hit a half-court shot to win at N.C. State and later made a three-pointer to beat South Carolina. He averages 12 points, 6.8 rebounds and shoots 36.7 percent from three.

Weaknesses

Poor shooting: Shot selection is the Gators’ biggest weakness, and it starts with their backcourt. Walker is shooting 34.8 percent from the field. While he leads the team in scoring average, Boynton shoots 36.8 percent from the field and an abysmal 27.4 percent from three. These poor shooting numbers are because the youth of the backcourt and quick shots on the offensive end. As a team, Florida only shoots 44.4 percent from the field and 30.8 percent from three.

Other factors

The Gators have been inconsistent this season. They have some really good wins against Michigan State, Florida State and Tennessee, but suffered bad losses against South Carolina, Georgia and South Alabama. They are 3-7 against the top 50 and 7-6 away from home. Their computer numbers aren’t great, but with a weak NCAA bubble this year, Florida should have enough to get in.

NCAA Tournament Prediction: Second round. The Gators are young and have plenty of flaws, but the bottom line is they are a well-balanced team. Walker can get to the basket with ease, Parsons is a three-point sharp-shooter, and the Gators rebound the ball pretty well. Their defensive strength is their quickness and ability to get steals. They need the right matchup in the first round, but the fact that they’ve won a lot of close games should pay off for the Gators for at least one tournament win.

Bad losses: at Georgia, at USC

Strengths

Quality wins: No other team in the country can say it has beaten both Kansas and Kentucky. These two wins show that the Volunteers are capable of beating anyone. Their speed and athleticism is as good as any team.

Speed: The Volunteers thrive on ball pressure and forcing turnovers. Three players average at least one steal per game and the Tennessee as a team averages 8.2 per game, good for second in the SEC. The Vols also rely on their quickness to beat guys off the dribble and create scoring opportunities. They average 14.8 assists, which ranks third in the SEC.

Wayne Chism: Tennessee needs to rely on this guy more. He is the team’s best player and can dominate a game, but sometimes it seems like the Vols don’t go to him enough in the low post. The senior averages 12.4 points, 6.8 rebounds, shoots 46.9 percent form the field and 76.3 percent from the free-throw line.

Weaknesses

Offense: Surprisingly, this team struggles from the offensive end this year. The Volunteers are miserable from the three-point line, only shooting 32.3 percent. They also shoot just 66.7 percent from the free-throw line. Tennessee’s leading scorer, Scotty Hopson, shoots just 59.1 percent from the free-throw line. A lot of the problems stem from the loss of Tyler Smith but also it’s the lack of a true point guard. Bobby Maze does most of the ball-handling but has struggled for most of the year. He is shooting just 42.1 percent from the field and 26.5 percent from three.

Other factors

Bruce Pearl has done a great job of turning this program around. Now in his fifth season, he has taken the Vols to Sweet 16s. The question is: is this their ceiling? Their frenetic pace can be a tough style to win in the NCAA Tournament. Also, the Vols have a couple of head-scratching losses at Southern California and Georgia this year, which leads to questions about their consistency. As for seeding in the NCAA Tournament, they will most likely fall between a three and five seed.

NCAA Tournament prediction: Second round. Some people may think by beating Kansas and Kentucky, the Volunteers are an elite team. Though they are certainly capable of beating anyone, their inconsistent play and poor offensive production say otherwise. The Vols may have better chemistry since the loss of Smith, but they were definitely a better team with him. The lack of a true point guard combined with poor shooting will doom this team. With the right matchup, their max potential is the Sweet 16, but if the Vols open against a disciplined team with a good point guard, they could find themselves out after the first round.

Bad losses: at Georgia, at Western Kentucky, vs. South Carolina

Strengths

A.J. Ogilvy: He is no doubt the leader and go-to man for the Commodores. At 6-11, Ogilvy is a load inside. He averages 13.9 points, leads the team with 6.2 rebounds, shoots 51.5 percent from the field and 73.5 percent from the free throw line, and averages 1.5 blocks. This guy is not only a stat machine, but also may determine how far Vanderbilt advances in the NCAA Tournament.

Offensive power: Vandy has a lot of weapons on offense. The ‘Dores have four players that score in double-figures. Jermaine Beal is the best perimeter threat; he leads the team with14.7 points and 3.1 assists. He also shoots 37.5 percent from three and 79.6 percent from the free-throw line. Jeffery Taylor is second in scoring (13.9 points per game) and averages 5.1 assists. Ogilvy is third with 13.9 points, and freshman John Jenkins averages 10.5 points while shooting 46.7 percent from three.

As a team, the Commodores average 78.1 points, which ranks third in the SEC. They also shoot 47.5 percent from the field and 72.7 percent from the free-throw line.

Weaknesses

Defense and rebounding: These are two areas that could doom Vandy in the NCAAs. The team ranks toward the bottom of the SEC, averaging only 39.2 rebounds, and rarely force any turnovers, forcing 5.9 steals. If Ogilvy gets in foul trouble, this team is going to struggle to win games.

Other factors

The Commodores don’t have a true point guard and it shows. They turn the ball over 13.8 times a game, which ranks third-most in the SEC. Vandy has notoriously struggled away from home. The team is 6-5 playing on the road or a neutral court this season. The Commodores’ RPI (15) is solid as is their strength of schedule (14). These numbers should help them get a high seed. If Vandy wins the SEC tournament, it could get a two or three seed and stay close to home for their first two NCAA games. Realistically, Vandy looks like it will be a four or five seed.

NCAA Tournament prediction: Sweet 16. Vandy can play with a lot of teams in the nation. If it wasn’t for an awful shooting display from the three point line, the Commdores would have beaten Kentucky at home. They are all but a lock to win at least one game in the tournament but their second-round game could come down to matchups. The ‘Dores do not want to see a big and physical team because of their weakness on the glass. They would prefer to play a team that plays up-tempo because Vandy can outscore most teams in the country.

They Commodores have enough offensive fire power to get to the Sweet 16 but without a true point guard and a weak defense, anything past that will be very difficult.