Biggest Strength: Size. Texas A&M head coach Mark Turegon knew he had a lot of work to do with the guards when he came on board this past year after Billy Gillispie bolted for bigger things at Kentucky. With Dominique Kirk trying to run the point for the first time, the biggest question was if the young guards had enough in the tank to take the Aggies where they needed to go. Amongst all of the early talk, you never heard anyone question the big men at A&M. And as it was earlier in the season, the big men are the catalyst that get A&M going every night.

Senior forward Joseph Jones is the motor of the A&M engine. At 6-9 he isn’t the biggest — or the strongest — guy on the court, but when it comes to having heart and intensity, Jones could be one of the biggest. Considered by most to be a poor man’s Zach Randolph, Jones averaged 10 points and 5 rebounds, while averaging 24 minutes of action this season.

Freshman DeAndre Jordan is considered by most to be the most highly touted prospect to come through Aggieland since Antoine Wright graced the Reed Arena floor a couple year’s ago. At 7 feet tall, Jordan is an intimidating figure in the post. While only a freshman, he averaged 8 points and 6 rebounds per game. His biggest problem was his lack of consistency during the season. While still being considered by most to be a top pick in the NBA Draft, Jordan is lacking in a number of departments — mainly strength and endurance — and would be best of spending another season in college before bolting for the NBA and their 82 game seasons. Bryan Davis (8.6 ppg and 4.9 rpg) and Chinemelu Elonu round out one of the best front four’s in the tournament.

Biggest Weaknesses: Inconsistency. The early half of the season was a dream for most A&M fans. A 70-47 blowout of Ohio State in the Preseason NIT and 15-1 record had everyone on cloud nine. But something happened after a January 12th win over Colorado when the team took the court four days later against Texas Tech. The once mighty defense looked atrocious, and the swagger coming out of College Station seemed to vanish before everyones eyes.

A&M has been one of the toughest teams to get a read on since the loss to Texas Tech. They beat Texas earlier in the year by 17, only to lose to them on the road by 25; they then did the same thing against Texas Tech, losing in Lubbock by 15, only to then turn around and beat them by 44 at home. What that equates to is a team that can’t seem to find their identity during some games.

You can blame it on the lack of a true point guard, or the fact that Mark Turgeon is still trying to implement his system at A&M. But whatever the main cause is, the Aggies haven’t been the same team they’ve been in year’s past.

Most Important Player: Josh Carter.

X-Factor: Dominique Kirk.

Might Surprise You With…one of the least impressive records in college basketball. In a game earlier this year against Oklahoma, A&M set what is thought to be an NCAA record for the longest scoring drought since the advent of the shot clock in 1986, going 16 minutes and 12 seconds without a single point. They proceeded to score only 10 points in the first half, and 37 for the game.

Predicted Finish in the NCAA’s: Round of 32. A&M had the pieces in places to make a run in the tournament, but their inconsistency and affinity for not showing up in big games makes them a prime candidate for a second round exit.

– Bracketography’s David Mihm on Selection Sunday.

Lost in all the Selection Sunday madness was any discussion of the Big Ten. And, because of the questionable season the entire conference put together, maybe the lack of discussion was warranted.

That said, only four Big Ten teams – the correct number – made the Field of 65; And, just one – Wisconsin – found itself as a protected seed. The NCAA Selection Committee obviously found the Big Ten to be an extremely flawed conference this season when the regular season and conference tournament champion was regulated to a No. 3 seed.

While the Big Ten, top to bottom, was the worst BCS conference this season, the top four teams could stack up with the top four in any other conference. But, because of the conference’s weakness, the Selection Committee has the Big Ten projected to do the following, at least according to their seeding: win four first round games and one second round game.

But this article isn’t meant to trade blows with the Selection Committee, because this year’s group put together arguably the best field in NCAA Tournament history based on the circumstances. (Other than Wisconsin, which probably deserved a No. 2 seed, no other Big Ten team can complain about its placement in the field. And, while Wisconsin is a No. 3 seed, the Badgers, if they win their first two games, will play the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight rounds at Ford Field in Detroit).

The projections listed at the end of each team capsule, totaled together, would add up to a 7-4 record for Big Ten teams, which isn’t too shabby. That record, of course, could be much worse (0-4) or could end up being much better, say (11-4). Now we just get to sit and watch.

Here is a look at what to expect from Big Ten teams this postseason:

Wisconsin (29-4, Midwest No. 3 seed) – The Badgers are stealing a little phrase that Oakland Raiders owner Al Davis coined: “Just win babq!” Seriously, the Badgers just don’t seem to lose games they are supposed to win. And, games they are “supposed” to lose usually end with a victory. Wisconsin’s only losses this year are a season-sweep by Purdue, a loss at Duke in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge and a home loss to Marquette in an annual Wisconsin state battle. That’s it. It’s arguably Wisconsin’s unique motion offense that gives opponents fits, but one would assume Big Ten competition would have an answer for it now. Still, Wisconsin rolled through the conference this season to a tune of 16 regular season wins plus three more in the conference tournament. That includes two wins over Michigan State and another two over Indiana.

The road to a Final Four will be much tougher, however. The Badgers’ first round opponent – Cal-State Fullerton – shouldn’t provide much of a challenge.

Possible second round foes – the USC Trojans or Kansas State Wildcats would give the Badgers a little trouble with their athleticism (especially the Trojans) but it isn’t as if Wisconsin hasn’t played athletic teams this season (see 67-66 win at Texas). I don’t see either USC or Kansas State knocking off the Badgers.

That leaves Wisconsin with Georgetown as a likely Sweet 16 opponent. Both teams pride themselves on defense so this game will be won in the 50s. Georgetown has more talent, but so do most of Wisconsin’s opponents. The Hoyas also seem vulnerable when the 3-point shots aren’t falling, so it wouldn’t be shocking to see Davidson or Gonzaga knock off the Hoyas in the second round. In all three scenarios, Wisconsin should advance to the Elite Eight, although beating Georgetown will be the most difficult task.

There is one team in this region the Badgers will have significant problems with – Kansas. The Jayhawks are obviously the most talented team in the country with six players that can single-handedly carry Kansas to a victory. In this matchup, Wisconsin won’t be able to slow the Jayhawks down, and Kansas wins by double figures. The onlyway Wisconsin reaches the Final Four is if either Vanderbilt or Clemson knock off the Jayhawks in the Sweet 16 round.

Projected Run: Elite Eight

LAST 5 NCAA TOURNAMENTS
2007 – No. 2 seed; Lost in second round to No. 7 UNLV
2006 – No. 9 seed; Lost in first round to No. 8 Arizona
2005 – No. 6 seed; Lost in Elite Eight to No. 1 (and eventual champ) North Carolina
2004 – No. 6 seed; Lost in second round to No. 3 Pittsburgh
2003 – No. 5 seed; Lost in Sweet 16 to No. 1 Kentucky

Michigan State (25-8, South No. 5 seed) – The Jekyll-and-Hyde Spartans are making their 11th-straight NCAA Tournament appearance, the fifth longest active streak in the country. The last time MSU was on the No. 5 line (2005), the Spartans advanced to the Final Four. That, of course, was a different team with different matchups along the way. But the biggest issue many people have with this year’s version of the Spartans is the inconsistency. For a team that had Final Four aspirations at the start of the year, here is what Spartan fans likely thought many times this season: “We’re up by six with five minutes to go… how will we lose this game.” And, sure enough, the Spartans coughed up a handful of games they should have won because poise and toughness disappeared down the stretch. MSU led UCLA by five with a few minutes to play. UCLA scored the game’s final 10 points to win; In the Big Ten Tournament semifinal, Michigan State led Wisconsin by 12 with eight minutes to play. Wisconsin won 65-63 thanks to a late-game steal and lay-up. It is these instances that make people leery about the Spartans, but it is the big-time wins (N-BYU, N-Texas, Indiana, Purdue) that make people think twice about picking against Michigan State.

The first round game against Temple, believe it or not, doesn’t look that difficult for the Spartans. Yes, Temple won the A-10 Tournament and finished second during the regular season, but the Owls’ numbers don’t put a scare into most teams. As far as efficiency goes, the Owls are 43rd in the country offensively and 97th defensively (The Spartans are 15th and 26th, respectively). That should give the Spartans a significant edge, especially when Temple has the ball (MSU held Marquette to 31.9 percent shooting in last year’s NCAA Tournament). Unless it goes cold, MSU should win this game by double figures.

The second round matchup is where the going gets tough. Most people assume Pittsburgh, the Big East Tournament Champions, will beat Oral Roberts in the first round, though I anticipate that game being closer than most think. But, much like a projected Wisconsin-Georgetown matchup, the first team to score 50 points in the MSU-Pitt game will be the victor. Both teams have toughness, though Pittsburgh seems to have a little more. I think this game comes down to free throw shooting in the final minutes and that is where the Panthers struggle. Michigan State, on the other hand, shoots in the mid-70s from the stripe. This game honestly could go either way. For arguments sake (and just to provide a look at a possible MSU-Memphis matchup), we’ll say the Spartans advance.

If the Spartans happened to advance past the Panthers, a matchup with Memphis would be the team’s final tournament game. While the Tigers are the worst teams in the country at free throw shooting, that will only matter if the Spartans are fouling in the final minutes, attempting a major comeback. Memphis’ athleticism is too much for Tom Izzo’s team. This is the deepest the Spartans should advance, though, if Memphis gets knocked out early, the Spartans should beat either Mississippi State or Oregon and a rematch against Texas in the Elite Eight round would be a dandy.

Projected Run: Sweet 16

LAST 5 NCAA TOURNAMENTS
2007 – No. 8 seed; Lost in second round to No. 1 North Carolina
2006 – No. 6 seed; Lost in first round to No. 11 George Mason
2005 – No. 5 seed; Lost in Final Four to No. 1 (and eventual champ) North Carolina
2004 – No. 7 seed; Lost in first round to No. 10 Nevada
2003 – No. 7 seed; Lost in Elite Eight to No. 1 Texas

Purdue (24-8, West No. 6 seed) – The Baby Boilers cooled off late in the season after winning 13 of 14 games from mid-January to the beginning of March. The biggest weakness the Boilermakers have is a lack of height. But, despite being so young, the Boilermakers have no fear, making them very dangerous for any team they face. It should be noted that in Purdue’s last two losses were in overtime, so even in losses, Purdue doesn’t go down easily). Will youth be served or will the elder statesmen of the NCAA Tournament give the Boilermakers a rude awakening?

The first round game against Baylor is a great matchup for Purdue. Like the Boilermakers, the Bears like to play small ball, going with three guards and two forwards (both 6-foot-9) as the bigs. The way Purdue plays means unless a team goes unconscious shooting the 3-pointer, the Boilermakers will be in the game at the end. Baylor is a decent 3-point shooting team, but one of the feel good stories of this year’s tournament will go home early.

Against Xavier in the second round, the Boilermakers will have their hands full (it could be a game against Georgia but the worst thing that could happen to Georgia was to have a break from games. I don’t see a team that won four SEC games during the season getting hot again after three days off). If Drew Lavender’s ankle is still an issue, Xavier will struggle mightily. But, if he’s healthy, this should be a great game. Because Purdue relies on its defense and 3-point shooting, it could be a rough game against a team that has shown it can play with the best of them. But, the best news is, Xavier also has a smaller lineup, making Purdue’s matchup a little better. Common sense says to go with Xavier in this game. But, for fun, let’s see what would happen if Purdue defeated the Musketeers.

In a Sweet 16 matchup, the Boilermakers likely would face Duke – a team that has gone just 5-4 in its last nine games. Like Purdue, the Blue Devils play small which, for the third straight game, would not exploit Purdue’s biggest weakness. If this matchup happened, Duke’s experience might be too much. But, if Duke isn’t hitting the 3-point shot, Purdue actually could advance to the Elite Eight.

A matchup with UCLA is likely in the Elite Eight round and this is where the Baby Boilers go back to the crib. Kevin Love would get close to 30 points in this matchup and Purdue would struggle to keep the game close.

PROJECTED RUN: 2ndRound

LAST 5 NCAA TOURNAMENTS

2007 – No. 9 seed; Lost in second round to No. 1 (and eventual champ) Florida
2003 – No. 9 seed; Lost in second round to No. 1 Texas
2000 – No. 6 seed; Lost in Elite Eight to No. 8 Wisconsin
1999 – No. 10 seed; Lost in Sweet 16 to No. 6 Temple
1998 – No. 2 seed; Lost in Sweet 16 to No. 3 Stanford

Indiana (25-7, East No. 8 seed) – Remember two months ago that Indiana was a bonafide Final Four contender? Well, times have change and so has the momentum Indiana rode during the season. Talent-wise, the Hoosiers have plenty. But all the chaos in Bloomington right now doesn’t bode well for the NCAA Tournament. Indiana has lost three of its last four games, including two straight to Penn State and Minnesota. If you’re looking for a team that is under seeded, Indiana is a nice choice. However, if you’re expecting that team to make a deep run, you should be looking elsewhere.

The first round game against Arkansas will be a battle of wills. The Razorbacks, who has proven to be one of the SEC’s best conference tournament team in recent years with a couple deep runs. However, before winning three straight in the SEC tournament, Arkansas lost three of four and five of seven. I see this being a game of two teams that did enough to make the Field of 65 but who, in the end, played as if they didn’t want to be included. The inside-outside combo of Eric Gordon and D.J. White should be enough to get Indiana into the second round, though it would not be surprising to see Arkansas win by double figures.

In 2000, a pair of No. 8 seeds not only knocked off No. 1 seeds, but also reached the Final Four. I say that as a preface to this comment: This is NOT the year to predict that to happen again. Indiana will run into a buzz saw when it faces North Carolina. If Michigan State can put up 103 points against the Hoosiers, the Tar Heels might attempt to match the 168 the Denver Nuggets scored Sunday night.

Projected Run: 2nd Round

LAST 5 NCAA TOURNAMENTS
2007 – No. 7 seed; Lost in second round to No. 2 UCLA
2006 – No. 6 seed; Lost in second round to No. 3 Gonzaga
2003 – No. 7 seed; Lost in second round to No. 2 Pittsburgh
2002 – No. 5 seed; Lost in National Championship to No. 1 Maryland
2001 – No. 4 seed; Lost in first round to No. 13 Kent State

Biggest Strengths: Depth. To put it plainly, the Jayhawks are loaded with talent. From forwards Darrell Arthur and Darnell Jackson, to the four guards: Russell Robinson, Mario Chalmers, Sherron Collins, Brandon Rush, the boys from Lawerence could be the deepest team in the tournament.

Whoever plays Kansas better pray that they have enough bench players to compete, because if they don’t, there’s a good chance that team could get run out of the building.

Biggest Weaknesses: Tournament confidence. Ok, so Kansas has one of the deepest benches in the country, a team chalk full of juniors and seniors, and a confident head coach in Bill Self. So why on earth should Kansas ever have to worry? Well for one this core group has always had issues living up to their expectations. Two years ago this same group was upset in the first round by Bradley, and last year in what was supposed to be the year they contended for a national title, they got upset by sixth seed UCLA in the Elite Eight.

I’m not saying this group isn’t talented. To be honest this Kansas team might be one of the best tournament teams I’ve seen in a long time — on paper. But we all know what teams that look good on paper can do to your bracket. This group has yet to reach a Final Four, and until they do, I believe they will always be looked upon as underachievers.

The big question for them is: Can they get past the demons of the past two years and make the 07-08 NCAA Tournament the year Kansas grew up and lived up to expectations? Only time will tell.

Most Important Player: Brandon Rush. Expectations were sky high coming into the season for Brandon Rush. After foregoing the NBA Draft after tearing his ACL in a pickup game, Rush returned back to school to lock Kansas in as the consensus pick for the Big 12 title and hasn’t disappointed since his return. The 6-6 guard is currently averaging 12 points and 2 assists per game, while adding another dimension to Jayhawk juggernaut.

This season has seen a dip in points from Rush — he averaged 13.8 in 2006 — but where his points have dipped, he’s picked up with a new leadership role. While he’s still one of the quickest player’s in the Big 12, he could be one of the best as well in finding ways to motivate his team.

While Rush may have been a first round pick in last years draft, his stock could very well rise if he can help lead Kansas to the Final Four. That alone could make the ACL tear over the offseason a blessing in disguise.

X-Factor: Sherron Collins. Mario Chalmers and Brandon Rush are two of the best guards in the Big 12; however, if you were to ask Bill Self who his most important player was, he would probably mention the name Sherron Collins (9.5 ppg, 2.9 assists). Collins is the kind of guard you want on your side when you have to face a team with multiple outside threats. At 5-11, 205 lbs., Collins isn’t the biggest player on the court — or the fastest. But I promise you he has more hustle and energy than any other player on the Kansas roster.

Might Lose When…they get outmuscled. Unlike most of the teams in the Big 12 Conference this season that would prefer to wear you down by battering you (see: Texas A&M and Oklahoma), the Jayhawks would prefer to beat you by running you into the ground at breakneck speed.

It’s hard to pick a weakness on a team that is as solid as Kansas, but in their three games the Jayhawks lost this season, the other team was able to punch them in the mouth early and not let go. Oklahoma State played a physical game and forced Kansas to fight back. The 61-60 final score proved that if you have the patience and bodies to bang the Jayhawks, then you have a serious chance to come out on top.

Might Surprise You With…their scoring margin. At 21 ppg, Kansas currently leads the country in beating teams like a drum. With a 54 point win against Texas Tech and a 35 point win against Nebraska, the Jayhawks have proven to the country that they no longer have a problem closing teams out early. While they might not beat teams by that kind of margin in the tournament, the number alone is reason enough to pick Kansas to go far.

Predicted Finish in the NCAA’s: Final Four. Name three other teams in the country as deep as the Jayhawks? I’m sure you’d probably come up empty handed. That reason alone is enough to push this team all the way. The team has the tools to make a serious run, and having a fully loaded bench isn’t such a bad thing, either. And if the team needs any more motivation, just mention last season’s loss to UCLA in the Elite Eight. That should be more than enough to get them over the hump this time around.

Biggest Strengths: The Razorbacks are deep, they have great size and they are experienced.

Their bench has been a key to their success all season long. The reserves have scored more than 30 points in nearly half of their games this season. The leader off of the bench has been Darian Townes as he has scored in double figures 20 times and shot over 50-percent in 21 games.

With six guys who stand taller than 6’8” (Charles Thomas, Darian Townes, Michael Washington, Vincent Hunter and Stephen Hill) the Hogs have tremendous size underneath. Defensively, they are led by Stephen Hill. Hill is only one of four players in SEC history to record more than 300 blocks in their career. While they give up a little offensively with Hill on the court his presence underneath shores up their defense.

Biggest Weaknesses: The Razorbacks have a lot of fouls to give because of their depth. However, they often get in trouble by sending opponents to the line so often. In their ten losses they have committed 214 fouls, an average of 21.4 per game, and have watched opponents knock down 180 of 242 free throws (.744). In their ten losses, opponents have outscored Arkansas by 66 from the line.

The only team with more talent in the SEC than the Razorbacks is Tennessee. But at times this year they have struggled with consistency. The loss to Appalachian State signifies the struggles they have had at times.

Most Important Player: In his second year at Arkansas it seems that Sonny Weems has made the adjustment from junior college basketball to major Division I conference play. The senior was recently named to the All-SEC First Team in recognition of his strong play.

At the beginning of the season Weems struggled from beyond the arc, missing his first 13 attempts from beyond the arc. Since then he is knocking down 43-percent from deep and has became a definite threat from distance.

Weems has the ability to score is so many different ways. When he is assertive and shoots the ball with confidence he is really difficult to guard.

X-Factor: Patrick Beverley makes this team go. He is an excellent scorer who has the ability to knock down open shots and get into the lane. When head coach John Pelphrey is asked about the importance of Beverley he recognizes his importance as a scorer but is quick to turn to the intangibles he provides. Pelphrey focuses on the sophomore’s toughness, his heart and his willingness to take charges and dive on the floor.

At 6’1” he has an incredible motor and he is a phenomenal rebounder for his size. He is leading the Hogs in rebounding on the season with 6.8 per game. In SEC play he is averaging an uncanny 8.3 rebounds-per-game, which ranks him fourth in the conference. The sophomore has finished with double-figure rebounds seven times.

Might Lose When: South Carolina defeated Arkansas in mid-January by inserting a smaller lineup and causing match-up problems. The Razorbacks are so big and really do not have any one on their roster to even help them practice against smaller lineups. If you are able to get out in transition and consistently make their big guys run you can cause them problems.

Might Surprise You With: When Sonny Weems and Patrick Beverly shoot the ball effectively they can beat a lot of teams. They run so many guys at you and have the ability to wear teams down with the amount of bigs they have underneath. Their recent conference tournament victories over Vanderbilt and Tennessee may be a sign that the Razorbacks have finally found the consistency they have lacked all season and are ready to make a run in the NCAA tournament.

Predicted finish in the NCAA’s: 1^st Round

Biggest Strengths: Defensively the Bulldogs are one of the best teams in the country. They are holding opponents to 65 points-per-game and 36-percent shooting from the floor, which ranks them first in the SEC in both categories. Jarvis Varnado, the nation’s leading shot blocker with 4.6 per game, is the key to the Mississippi State defense. He has long arms and is lightning quick in contesting shots but also has the ability to stay on his feet on pump fakes and remain in good defensive position. Varnado is not the only legitimate shot-blocker for the Dogs as they average nearly eight a game as a team, which ranks near the nation’s best.

Offensively they have a lot of weapons as well. Jamont Gordon is as tough a match-up as there is up top and he has two great shooters on the wings (Barry Stewart, Ben Hansbrough) to distribute it to along with two threats underneath in Charles Rhodes and Varnado.

Biggest Weaknesses: Despite their 12-4 conference record it is really difficult to look at their victories and find one that stands out. Their two losses to Southern Illinois and Miami (OH) on neutral courts also must concern head coach Rick Stansbury a little bit entering tournament play.

The Bulldogs’ biggest issue is forgetting about Rhodes underneath. Gordon is an incredible player but at times he tries to do everything by himself. He has to ability to score at anytime from anywhere but when he turns the game into one on five and forgets about his big man underneath, or his shooters on the wing, the Bulldogs struggle to get points.

Most Important Player: Jamont Gordon may physically be the strongest point guard in the country. At 6’4”, 230-pounds he creates huge match-up problems and the main strength of his game is his strength. He has the ability to split double-teams with ease by ripping through them and get to the rim and find his big guys. Defenses can’t pressure him or move him around by putting a hip on him because he is so big. Despite his size you also can’t check him 40 to 50 feet away from the basket as he has the ability to go right around defenders.

He is also a fantastic rebounder at the guard position with 6.3 rebounds-per-game. When he pulls down defensive rebounds he will surprise you with his quickness, he is so good and pushing the ball up the court and leading the break.

Gordon is a closeout player because he genuinely understands how to close out games. He demands the ball in clutch situations and he comes through, more often than not, with the game on the line.

X-Factor: One of the main reasons for the Bulldogs’ improved play this year is the performance of Charles Rhodes underneath. In his first three seasons Rhodes was effective and at times showed the ability to take over games. This year it seems that he has finally learned to play hard on every possession and give maximum effort. His improved motor could have a lot to do with the fact that he has not been forced to deal with ankle issues this year.

The senior is gifted with broad shoulders and if he gets deep touches underneath it is really difficult to keep him from getting the ball in the basket. If you do stop him you will more than likely put him on the line for freebies

Might Lose When: Mississippi State is so aggressive underneath on defense that they are tough to beat when referees allow them to play. If games are called close it could be a definite issue for the Bulldogs and limit their shot blocking. They also must continue to play as five. If Gordon relies on his individual talents and tries to win games by himself their season could come to an abrupt halt.

Might Surprise You With: The Bulldogs will stay in games because of their defensive intensity. Their ability to remain in games allows them to opportunity to put the ball in Gordon’s hands in clutch time. Head coach Rick Stansbury will take his chances with Gordon at the end of regulation and an opportunity to win every time.

Predicted finish in the NCAA’s: 2^nd Round

As you can see from the final stats posted on our homepage, this was my best year at projecting the field, as I missed only on my last teams in and out (Arizona State and South Alabama).  Frequent readers probably know that I had the order flip-flopped right down until the very end until Georgia won the SEC Tournament.  Guess I should have stuck with my first instinct!

I projected 58/65 teams within one line of their exact seed, which should compare favorably to most other analysts.  Congrats to Bracketology 101, however, whom I believe had 60.

Now, onto my VERY minor gripes:

1) There’s simply no way that Oregon should be a #9 seed.  This might make my local Portland & Eugene readers a little peeved, but I think even true Ducks’ fans will admit that this team hasn’t played up to that line this year.  The Ducks got a great draw, in my opinion the most vulnerable #1 seed in Memphis’ pod, and could certainly pull the upset if they can get past Mississippi State in the first round.

2) Saint Joseph’s should not have been seeded ahead of Temple.  The Owls beat St Joe’s on a neutral floor, after the two teams had traded victories on each other’s home floors.  They finished two games ahead of the Hawks in the regular-season standings, and also beat Xavier at home (they didn’t get the chance to do so in the A-10 Tournament, on the opposite side of the bracket).  I also think that Michigan State is a far tougher draw than Oklahoma, as I had the Sooners at the bottom of the #7 line.

3) I think Arizona State was slightly more deserving than South Alabama.  I can certainly understand the argument for including the Jaguars over the Sun Devils, but having seen ASU in person once this year, and numerous times on television, I truly felt that the Sun Devils were a Tournament-caliber team, RPI notwithstanding.  As Herb Sendek pointed out, the Maui Invitational matchups didn’t break in ASU’s favor, and the Big XII Challenge matchup wasn’t very favorable with Nebraska either.  If ever the Committee were to select a team with an RPI in the 80’s, this would have been the one.  No disrespect to South Alabama, Saint Joe’s, Villanova, or any other Bubble team, but I think ASU was a deserving participant.

4) In terms of geography, it’s puzzling that Kansas State (11) and Davidson (10) were seeded within a two-hour drive of their campuses.  As a small school, I’m not sure Davidson will have any real advantage over the Hoyas in Raleigh.  But K-State is sure to send plenty of fans to Omaha for their matchups with USC and/or Wisconsin.

5) A couple of regular-season / previous Tournament rematches are possible, and the Committee probably could have avoided them fairly easily.  Winthrop-Notre Dame is possible if the Eagles upset Wazzu in the first round.  Texas vs. Saint Mary’s is perhaps more likely, if the Gaels get past Miami in their first round. Am I missing any others?

All of these are relatively small nit-picks, however, and Tom O’Connor and the entire Committee are to be absolutely commended for putting together one of the best, if not the best, brackets ever.  It should be yet another exciting Tournament!

2) Don’t pick all four #1 seeds to reach the Final Four. (This one’s for March Madness rookies.) It’s never happened, and it won’t happen this year either, with parity at an all-time high in college hoops.

3) Historically, 7-10 affairs have been almost as evenly matched as 8-9 games. Don’t be afraid to pick two of the #10 seeds to get to the second round—or more (see item #4).

4) #10 seeds make great sleepers. Even office pool veterans might find this one surprising—I’m not sure why it doesn’t get the same amount of media hype as the ever-reliable 5-12 upset… The last two years have been the first times since 1996 that at least one #10 seed didn’t reach the Sweet 16. Kent State and Gonzaga have even made the Elite Eight as a #10 in relatively recent memory. This year, #10’s Davidson and Arizona could be excellent choices.

5) It’s not just mid-major Cinderellas that do well with double-digit seeds. Like their little brothers, major-conference schools among the last at-large teams selected also have an uncanny record of winning at least one game in the NCAA Tournament. Examples: Texas A&M 2006, NC State 2005, Auburn 2003, Missouri 2002, Georgetown 2001, to name a few. This year’s candidates: Villanova (12), Baylor(11), Kentucky (11), Kansas State (11).

6) Free throw percentages matter. What all of your favorite buzzer-beating highlights from previous Tournaments DON’T show is the number of times the losing team has missed one or more free throws prior to the victors’ heroics. Indiana, North Carolina, and Drake are among the best in the country as a team, and two of Texas’ key players (Augustin, Abrams) shoot well over 80%. Among the worst teams in the field? Memphis and Pittsburgh.

7) Teams that get to the charity stripe can save themselves on a cold shooting night. If the shots aren’t falling, who can get to the rim? Among the national leaders in free throw attempts: Memphis (hey, it’s quantity over quality with the Tigers), North Carolina, UConn, Duke, and Texas A&M.

8) Pick Duke to reach the Sweet 16—at least. Love ‘em or hate ‘em, the Blue Devils have made the third round of the Tournament nine years in the last 10. Coach K is a terrific in-game coach. Arizona and West Virginia are both dangerous teams, but don’t be surprised to see Duke in the Elite Eight.

9) Look for teams with clutch players. UNC’s Tyler Hansbrough, Pitt’s Levance Fields, UCLA’s Darren Collison, Stanford’s Brook Lopez, and Texas’ D.J. Augustin make up my “All-Clutch” Starting Five. And don’t forget that mid-majors can have these guys, too—Butler’s A.J. Graves, Drake’s Adam Emmenecker, and Temple’s Diante Christmas are just a few mid-major stars who have been unbelievable in late-game situations this year.

10) Remember that the Midwest and South Regional Finals, as well as the Final Four, are played in massive domes. After playing in traditional college gyms all season, it’s often difficult for players to adjust their depth perception when shooting in a supersized arena that seats 40,000+.  The team with the most experience playing in domes might be UCLA (last two Final Fours).

11) The Pac-10 is better this year than it’s been in a decade, and it’s better than fans who are just tuning in to March Madness probably realize. Every team in the “Conference of Champions” has faced a number of different styles of play within the conference, and all of the teams selected for the Tournament have won at least one road game against a major opponent this year.  Arizona has had a ton of injuries, notably to Jerryd Bayless and Nic Wise, who are both healthy.

12) Don’t drive yourself crazy picking the early-round games—it’s far more important to get the Final Four correct. In a traditional bracket pool, you’ll earn the same number of points for picking two Final Four members than for predicting all of the first-round games combined. Spend most of your time analyzing who’s going to make an extended run rather than obsessing about one or two 8-9 or 5-12 matchups.

13) Look at your predicted national champion’s schedule to see if it has won six-plus games in a row during the regular season. If it hasn’t, there’s little reason to believe that team can win six straight games with everything on the line.

14) Defense doesn’t always win championships in college hoops, but it can certainly win you a couple of games. Kansas, Georgetown, Michigan State, and Memphis are among the best in the country in terms of Field Goal % Defense. Take MSU’s and Memphis’ rankings with a grain of salt, however, as their competition to date likely hasn’t been as adept at scoring as their potential NCAA Tournament foes.

15) The final score of the championship game is often lower than you might expect. I’m throwing this one in because the combined final score is the traditional tie-breaking method in most office pools. Nerves often lead to poor shooting and increased turnovers, especially early in the game, so err a few points on the low side of your initial guess.

16) If all else fails, ask your spouse or significant other who he/she would pick. (That is, unless you’re in the same pool.)

Good luck, everyone, and enjoy the games!

Biggest Strengths: The Cats are tough. They’ve been through so much this season, there’s nothing that is really going to catch them by surprise. This is a team that has fought through injuries, a coaching change and transfers yet they still appeared destined for the NCAA Tournament.

Since Patterson went out this has unquestionably been a different team, but they have found a way to continue their momentum. Kentucky has shown an uncanny ability to milk the shot clock for all that it is worth and still knock down baskets. Many of the Wildcat players have attributed it to the fact that there is no pressure when they shoot at the buzzer.

The coach can’t really get on them for taking a bad shot with two seconds on the shot clock. The calmness and effectiveness at the end of the shot clock has allowed them to slow the game down a bit and preserve the energy of the few players who see the court. It has also supplied Kentucky with the confidence that they will be able to make baskets in clutch situations as Tournament games wind down.

Biggest Weaknesses: Despite the recent success of slowing the game down, the Cats still have a serious issue in the depth department. Without the services of Patrick Patterson and Jodie Meeks the Wildcats on the court have been forced to play a ton of minutes. Ramel Bradley has yet to see the pine since Patterson’s injury and others are averaging over 34 minutes-per-game. This was not a deep team before Patterson’s injury. With him out it becomes even more of an issue.

Most Important Player(s): The UK Seniors. At the beginning of the year Ramel Bradley and Joe Crawford struggled with new head coach Billy Gillispie’s system. Because of this struggle they often found it difficult to find the court. Eventually, both Gillispie and the two senior guards realized in order to be successful they would all have to give a little. Bradley became the lead guard that Gillispie expected him to be, Crawford locked down defensively and picked his spots on offense, and Gillispie put the ball in his seniors’ hands. As a result Kentucky has been a totally different team the second half of the season. Bradley (1^st Team), Crawford (2^nd Team) and Gillispie (Co-Coach of the Year) were each named to the All-SEC Team in recognition of this turnaround.

Bradley is a tough-nosed, Brooklyn guard who is not scared to make mistakes. While he makes his share of mistakes (3.3 TPG), there is no one else that Coach Gillispie would want to have the ball in a clutch situation. “Smooth,” as UK fans refer to him, is effective from behind the arc and has been much more selective in the shots he puts up. He also has the ability to get into the lane and get to the line where he is a very good free throw shooter.

It took a little longer for Crawford to adjust to Gillispie’s system. Crawford has always been gifted on offense. There are not many who have the ability to shoot from outside along with the ability to put his head down, pump fake and somehow get the ball in the basket as Crawford does. He is extremely strong and wills his way into the lane, time and time again, to score the basketball. Still, Gillispie was frustrated with his unwillingness to penetrate and look to open shooters or to focus on the defensive side of the ball. In the second half of the year Crawford has been the Cats best lock-down defender and his improvement on defense has been monumental in their turnaround.

X-Factor: When it was announced that Patrick Patterson would miss the remainder of the season with a stress fracture in his left ankle many cashed the season in for the Wildcats. It appeared that the recent run of success would be all for naught without their talented freshmen underneath. But they surprised people by playing the Volunteers tough in Knoxville, losing by three with a chance at the buzzer, and handling South Carolina and Florida.

The main reason for their continued success is the improved play of sophomore Perry Stevenson. Prior to Patterson’s injury Stevenson was no where near a focal point in the Cats’ offensive attack. Occasionally, he would provide a weak side put-back or cut to the basket when opponents doubled Patterson on the block. He was mainly a shot blocker underneath but struggled to body up underneath because of his light frame.

Stevenson has been a totally different player in Patterson’s absence. In those three games the sophomore is averaging 11 points, 10 rebounds and three blocks-per-game. The improved play of Stevenson and others including Ramon Harris and Derrick Jasper has helped continue the Cats’ improbable ride towards the NCAATtournament.

Might Lose When: Crawford and Bradley are Kentucky’s only two reliable scorers. If defenses can find a way to lock these two guys down the Wildcats are going to be in trouble. Since Patterson’s injury the two seniors have provided more than seventy-percent of the offense for the Cats. Gillispie looks to his seniors often and if they struggle, get in foul trouble or if defenses find a way to contain them they are going to find it very difficult to get a victory.

Might Surprise You With: At this point in the year everything centers on Crawford and Bradley for the Wildcats. There is not a coach in the country who would not want two senior guards of this caliber. The two seniors have been in the spotlight for four seasons and there is nothing they want to do more than make a run in the NCAA tournament and continue their careers. While this team may not be as talented as others or as deep, opponents may find it difficult to knock them out. Look at all they have been through this year and we are still talking about them. These Cats have proven that they do indeed have nine lives and it isn’t going to be easy to get Crawford and Bradley to take off their UK jerseys for the last time.

Predicted finish in the NCAA’s: 2^nd Round

2) Bracket History 101:

Gonzaga (2002) - RPI 20, 28-3, WCC Reg. Season & Tournament Champion, N-Texas (22), N-St John’s (38), N-St Joe’s (73)
Result: #6 seed

Butler (2008) - RPI 16, 29-3, Horizon Reg. Season & Tournament Champion, N-VaTech (53), N-Texas Tech (66), Ohio State (46), Southern Illinois (61)
Result: predicted #6 seed, and certainly no higher than a 5.

3) The Play-in Game will likely feature the two worst teams, even though both of their conferences are almost always placed there.

Coppin State and Mississippi Valley State are SO much lower-rated in the RPI than Mt St Mary’s that it would be a pure tragedy for The Mount if they were relegated.

4) The Bubble: Comparing “Apples to Apples”

Hopefully this is an informative comparison of what I feel are the most difficult Bubble decisions. Ignoring “power numbers,” and only looking at games won and lost, how would you rank the following teams?

BUSHEL #1: .500 POWER CONFERENCE TEAMS

Arizona: 9-11 in de facto #1 league, 8-8 away from Tucson, 4-8 in its last 12 games, with significant injury to Nic Wise for several games
Best wins: @USC, @WSU, WSU, @UNLV, Texas A&M, San Diego State, @Houston
Bad losses: none.

Ohio State: 10-9 in #6 league, 5-10 away from Columbus, 4-8 in its last 12 games
Best wins: N-Syracuse, @Cleveland St, Florida, MD-BalCo, Purdue, Michigan State
Bad losses: @Iowa, @Michigan (both in last 12 games)

Villanova: 10-10 in de facto #2 league, 8-9 away from home, 7-5 in its last 12 games
Best wins: N-George Mason, @Temple, Pittsburgh, @Syracuse, N-Syracuse, West Virginia, Connecticut
Bad losses: @DePaul, @Rutgers

Arizona State: 9-10 in de facto #1 league, 6-8 away from Tempe, 5-7 in its last 12 games
Best wins: Xavier, Oregon, Arizona, @Arizona, Stanford, USC
Bad losses: none

Oregon: 9-10 in de facto #1 league, 6-10 away from Eugene, 6-6 in its last 1 games
Best wins: @Kansas State, @Arizona, Stanford, Arizona State, Arizona
Bad losses: @Oakland-Michigan

Virginia Tech: 7-10 in de facto #3 league, 7-11 away from Blacksburg, 6-6 in last 12 games
Best wins: N-Miami
Bad losses: @Old Dominion, @Penn State

MY RANKINGS FOR BUSHEL #1:

A) Villanova - Villanova’s best wins (UConn and Pittsburgh) compare favorably with Stanford and USC. They closed the season much better, and have four wins against NCAA level or Bubble competition away from home. Their loss to Georgetown was on a questionable call.
B) Arizona - The Wildcats did some great winning away from home, and despite a .500 record and a struggle to the finish, UA was hurt by an injury to Nic Wise, who’s now healthy. Their loss to UCLA was on a questionable call.
C) Arizona State - The Sun Devils’ good wins are as good as Villanova’s, including an “extra” win over Xavier. They also swept the Wildcats head-to-head, and lost to a good USC team on a questionable call. Stanford’s #318 non-conference SOS isn’t being questioned for their seeding…why should ASU’s count more?
D) Oregon - The Ducks are the hardest call for me. They have a nice win out of conference in Manhattan, KS, which is thoroughly offset by the loss to Oakland. Also, now that K-State has slipped into the 9-10 seeding range, that win doesn’t look quite as good. Nor does an overall 6-10 R/N record. The sweep of Arizona looks great, and having seen the Ducks in person on four occasions this year, they certainly pass the “eye test.” But are they better than some of the mid-majors below? I’m not sure…
E) Ohio State - A poor finish and so-so good wins (both at home) place the Buckeyes pretty far down the pecking order, in my opinion.
F) Virginia Tech - No bubble team has fewer true quality wins than VaTech, with the exception of VCU. I don’t think this team is all that close.
BUSHEL #2: The Atlantic-10
Saint Joseph’s: 12-8 (if they lose the auto bid) in #7 conference, 12-6 away from Hawk Hill, 6-6 in last 12 games
Best wins: @Siena, @UMass, @Temple, UMass, Villanova, Xavier, N-Xavier
Bad losses: Holy Cross, LaSalle, Saint Louis

Temple: 13-6 in #7 conference, 10-8 away from home, 9-3 in last 12 games
Best wins: Xavier, UMass, @Saint Joseph’s, Charlotte, N-Charlotte
Bad losses: N-College of Charleston, Fordham

UMass: 10-7 in #7 conference, 10-7 away from Amherst, 8-4 in last 12 games
Best wins: @Syracuse, @Dayton, Charlotte
Bad losses: @Northern Iowa, @Saint Louis, Fordham

THOUGHTS ABOUT BUSHEL #2:

UMass is clearly third in this pecking order, not having beaten Xavier. Saint Joe’s has nice wins away from home @Siena and over Xavier in the tournament, and also swept the Minutemen. Temple might be more vulnerable if they lose the final because their wins aren’t really all that great. But their record down the stretch is, and they have an outright 2nd place finish in conference play.

BUSHEL #3: QUALITY MID-MAJORS:

South Alabama: 17-3 in #15 conference, 9-5 away from home, 9-3 in last 12 games.
Best wins: N-San Diego, Mississippi State, Western Kentucky, @Western Kentucky
Bad losses: @North Texas

VCU: 16-4 in #13 conference, 12-6 away from home, 9-3 in last 12 games.
Best wins: N-Houston, N-Maryland, @Akron
Bad losses: @Hampton, @James Madison, Old Dominion, N-William & Mary

Illinois State: 15-6 in #8 conference, 9-8 away from home, 9-3 in last 12 games.
Best wins: @Creighton, Southern Illinois, Creighton, @Southern Illinois
Bad losses: @Eastern Michigan, @Northern Iowa

Stephen F. Austin: 14-4 in #19 conference, 12-4 away from home, 10-2 in last 12 games.
Best wins: @Oklahoma, @San Diego
Bad losses: @Nicholls State, @UT-Arlington, N-Northwestern State

THOUGHTS ABOUT BUSHEL #3:

South Alabama has an awfully good resume. If the win over Mississippi State hadn’t been at home, I’d say there’d be no question about their resume. I’ve gotta think the Committee will give them a free pass on North Texas, which also won @Oklahoma State earlier in the year. Both VCU and Stephen F. Austin have a lot of bad losses. The fact that VCU won its bracketbuster matchup on the road and the fact that they won the CAA, historically a well-respected league, by a full three games works in their favor. But are they better than Oregon or Arizona State? Better than Temple or UMass? I’m just not sure.

Illinois State is a very tough call. The Valley is a really good league, and other than the Eastern Michigan loss, none of their losses is all that bad. But none of their wins is all that impressive either. Virginia Tech’s resume looks pretty similar, and they’re in the ACC…I think it’ll be tough for the Redbirds to get much love from the Committee.

Updated Saturday March 15, 1:00 PT

The biggest stories on The Bubble…where to begin? Why not reverse order of finish?
1) New Mexico lost to Utah in the MWC quarterfinal. The Lobos are OUT.
2) Arizona lost a semi-competitive game to Stanford, dropping its record in the last 12 games (removing two wins against Oregon State) to just 2-8 against legitimate competition. Nic Wise or no Nic Wise, thata is not very good.
3) Oregon lost a semi-competitive game to Wazzu, giving the Cougs a three-game sweep on the season. The Ducks still “look” like a Tournament team to me, but I’d feel a lot more comfortable without the Oakland-Michigan loss…
4) Georgia dashed any prayers Ole Miss may have had by knocking the Rebels out with an OT victory.
5) UNLV escaped TCU on a horrible foul call on Wink Adams’ drive. It probably puts these Rebels in the Tournament, but winning the semifinal against Utah today would be a good idea.
6) Maryland lost to Boston College, ending the Terps’ chances.
7) Charlotte beat UMass to boost its own remote chances slightly, and possibly end the Minutemen’s…I’ll be taking a very close look at both teams in the next few days.
8) Alabama crushed Florida. Gators are NIT, as predicted here way back at the beginning of January.
9) Kent State survived a can’t lose game to Toledo. I think the Golden Flashes are IN no matter what.
10) Temple survived LaSalle…will the Owls be able to clinch with a win over a streaky Charlotte team in the semis?
11) UAB and Houston, two teams which I barely had on my board to begin with, are OUT after CUSA quarterfinal defeats.
12) Miami beat NC State in a can’t lose game. ‘Canes are in.
13) St Joe’s beat Richmond in a can’t lose game. Beat Xavier today and the Hawks would be awfully close, pending results elsewhere.
14) Arizona State lost to USC on yet another awful call from Pac-10 officials…the Sun Devils clearly looked the part of an NCAA-caliber team, except for the last 8 minutes of the game where they went without a FG…
15) West Virginia locked up a bid by beating UConn. ‘Eers playing for seeding now.
16) Xavier polished off Dayton, and likely the Flyers’ NCAA chances.
17) Georgetown beat Villanova and forced the Wildcats into the worst game ever: “the waiting game.”

The Math: 23 teams for 10 slots.

Total Locks: 35
Total One-Bid Leagues: 16
Total Near-Locks:4

TOTAL DANCE CARDS SPOKEN FOR: 55
TOTAL AVAILABLE AT-LARGE BIDS: 10

Tournament At-Large Locks (35)

The following teams have locked up NCAA Tournament berths, regardless of what happens during Championship Week. (* = automatic bid)

Atlantic 10 (1) - Xavier
ACC (4) - North Carolina, Duke, Clemson, Miami FL
Big East (7) - Georgetown, Louisville, Notre Dame, UConn, Marquette, Pittsburgh, West Virginia
Big Ten (4) - Wisconsin, Purdue, Indiana, Michigan State
Big XII (4) - Texas, Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas A&M
Colonial (1) - George Mason*
Conference USA (1) - Memphis
Missouri Valley (1) - Drake*
Mountain West (1) - BYU
Pac-10 (4) - UCLA, Stanford, Washington State, USC
SEC (4) - Tennessee, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt, Arkansas
Sun Belt (1) - Western Kentucky*
WCC (2) - Gonzaga, San Diego*

Automatic “One-Bid” Leagues, regardless of the champion (16)

Horizon League - Butler*, SoCon - Davidson*, Patriot - American, MAAC - Siena*, Big Sky - Portland State*, WAC, Summit - Oral Roberts*, NEC - Mt St Mary’s*, Ivy - Cornell*, Big West, America East - UMBC*, Big South - Winthrop*, Atlantic Sun - Belmont*, Ohio Valley - Austin Peay*, MEAC, SWAC

Tournament At-Large Probables (4)

The following teams have a better than 90% chance of making the Tournament, regardless of what happens during Championship Week.

Big XII - Kansas State
SEC - Kentucky
WCC - Saint Mary’s
MAC - Kent State

True Bubble Teams

Teams are listed in order on my S-Curve.

UNLV - Prior to Missouri State’s snub a couple of years ago, I’d have said that UNLV was safe. The Rebels sport a top-30 RPI, and have a nice home win over BYU. Beyond that, there’s nothing all that impressive, and Lon Kruger’s team is “only” 6-3 in its last nine games. The Committee “loves” the Mountain West (see: Air Force’s inclusion two years ago), but given that UNLV is hosting the MWC Tournament, the Committee might expect them to win it.Odds of making the NCAA Tournament as an at-large: 70-30.
Likely Seed: 8 - 12.

South Alabama - Well, the Jags have gotten the help they’ve needed from the rest of the Bubble. I wrote earlier that “too many other teams can play their way PAST the Jaguars with big conference tournament wins,” but so far pretty much every single one of those teams has suffered an early Tournament exit. South Alabama’s neutral-court win over San Diego in the pre-conference season is looking better now that the Toreros have won the WCC, but their RPI has plummeted a full 13 spots in the last week. I’ll continue to take a close look at this team today and tomorrow, but I think they’re going to scrape in as of now…especially if Mississippi State makes the SEC Final tonight.

Odds of making the NCAA Tournament as an at-large: 54-46.
Likely Seed: 10 - 13.

St Joseph’s - The Hawks are now looking decent for an at-large slot, thanks to a second win over Xavier in the last two weeks.  The Hawks’ R/N record is 12-6, and although they finished behind UMass by a game in the A-10 standings, their non-conference win over Villanova now looks better than UMass’ win over Syracuse.  Better beat Temple tonight to take the decision out of the Committee’s hands, however.

Odds of making the NCAA Tournament as an at-large: 52-48.
Likely Seed: 10 - NIT.

Baylor - Baylor did not survive its can’t lose game against Colorado, but with everyone else around them losing, I can’t see the Bears falling completely out of the Tournament. N-Notre Dame and N-Winthrop are both looking pretty good right now, and Baylor also beat fellow bubble-dweller Texas A&M in their own house, and picked up a late-season win against streaking Kansas State. I’ve gotta believe a 9-8 overall record in the #3 RPI conference, combined with a 9-6 R/N record will be good enough.

Odds of making the NCAA Tournament as an at-large: 60/40.
Likely Seed: 9-12.

Villanova - Despite Wednesday’s win over Syracuse, after the Georgetown loss, ‘Nova is still only 3-6 against the RPI top 50 but owns wins over West Virginia and UConn late in the year. Sadly, they’re missing a marquee W away from home, a gap which the game against Georgetown would certainly have filled. However, early season wins N-George Mason and N-Temple are now looking much better, and they did finish a true .500 against a good Big East schedule (as opposed to West Virginia’s version).

Odds of making the NCAA Tournament as an at-large: 55-45.
Likely Seed: 10-12.

Arizona and Ohio State -Here’s an informative comparison, if the discussion comes down to Arizona and Ohio State:

Arizona: 9-11 in de facto #1 league, 8-8 away from Tucson, 4-8 in its last 12 games, with significant injury to Nic Wise for several games
Best wins: @USC, @WSU, WSU, @UNLV, Texas A&M, San Diego State, @Houston
Bad losses: none.

Ohio State: 10-9 in #6 league, 5-10 away from Columbus, 4-8 in its last 12 games, no injury issues
Best wins: N-Syracuse, @Cleveland St, Florida, MD-BalCo, Purdue, Michigan State
Bad losses: @Iowa, @Michigan (both in last 12 games)

Personally, I don’t see any way that Ohio State gets in over Arizona in a head-to-head comparison. Obviously there are other teams under consideration on the board, but this one seems clear-cut to me …

Arizona’s Odds of making the NCAA Tournament as an at-large: 52-48.
Likely Seed: 8 - 12.

Ohio State’s Odds of making the NCAA Tournament as an at-large: 48-52.
Likely Seed: 11 - NIT.

Arizona State - If this team does indeed make the NCAA Tournament, the Sun Devils can point to the home win over Southern Cal two weeks ago as the one that sealed their bid. If they fail to make it, it will not be because ASU lost to the Trojans in the first round of the Pac-10 Tournament on a questionable call; instead it will be failing to win a far easier game at the end of February: at home to Cal.

Odds of making the NCAA Tournament as an at-large: 51-49.
Likely Seed: 9-12.

Temple - Temple played a brutal non-conference schedule and has three good wins in conference play (Xavier, UMass, @Saint Joseph’s). But the A-10 Tournament will be highly competitive, and as with South Alabama, too many teams can pass the Owls. They need to reach the Final to really feel good about their chances, and simply must beat Charlotte today. But their chances of an at-large with a trip to the Final have improved dramatically since Championship Week began.

Odds of making the NCAA Tournament as an at-large: 50-50.
Likely Seed: 10-13.

VCU - After re-examining VCU’s resume on Thursday…the Rams’ outright regular-season title (by three full games no less) just might be good enough to make the NCAA’s, what with the chaos occurring all around them on the rest of the Bubble…

Odds of making the NCAA Tournament as an at-large: 50-50.
Likely Seed: 11 - NIT.

__________________________________________________________Oregon - The Ducks, Wildcats, and Sun Devils are no doubt going to be the most hotly debated teams on Selection Sunday. Despite the fact that the Committee does not look at conference affiliation when selecting teams, it is hard for me to imagine the nation’s best league getting only four in. When that exact situation happened with the ACC a couple of years ago, it wasn’t as big a surprise because the middle of that league simply wasn’t that good. Having seen a dozen Pac-10 games in person this year, the Sun Devils, Ducks, and Wildcats all deserve bids, in that order, but I’m not sure it’s going to happen. At this point, I think the sweep of the ‘Cats by both teams gets them in ahead of Arizona.

Odds of making the NCAA Tournament as an at-large: 50-50.
Likely Seed: 10-12.

Illinois State - For a team that looked SO solid going into The Valley Tournament, last week couldn’t have been worse. First they get blown out by 30 points on national television in the MVC Final, then VCU, South Alabama, and Saint Mary’s all lose. The Redbirds are a discouraging 0-5 against the RPI Top 50, and don’t own a marquee non-conference win. It’s looking like a one-bid year for the first time in ages for The Valley. But with everyone around them losing, does the trip to the Valley Final now become a feather in the cap of Tim Jankovich’s team? This is another team that is very, very close to inclusion.

Odds of making the NCAA Tournament as an at-large: 45-55.
Likely Seed: 11 - NIT.

Ohio State (see above)

Charlotte - If Bobby Lutz’s team beats Temple today, it’s hard for me to see them getting left home. Yes, there are some bad losses, but the 49ers are 9-7 against the RPI Top 100, including early-season wins over Davidson, Wake Forest, Southern Illinois and @Clemson. They’re 11-8 overall in A-10 play, and split the regular season series with Temple.

Odds of making the NCAA Tournament as an at-large: 40/60.
Likely Seed: 11 - NIT.

Virginia Tech - We’re still talking about the Hokies…barely. The win over Miami FL was big for Seth Greenberg’s team, and after taking Carolina very deep, they have a chance.  But there’s just nothing at all exciting about VaTech’s non-conference resume.  As Jay Bilas said earlier, there are teams with similar resumes, but better wins…

Odds of making the NCAA Tournament as an at-large: 30/70.
Likely Seed: 12 - NIT.

UMass - Ugh. The Minutemen laid an egg against Charlotte in the second half of a can’t lose affair. Non-conference wins at Syracuse and over Houston look a lot worse now than they did then, as does their win at Dayton. A 10-7 record away from Amherst works in their favor, but I think UMass needed at least one A-10 Tourney win to get in.

Odds of making the NCAA Tournament as an at-large: 30/70.
Likely Seed: 11 - NIT.

New Mexico - Most other analysts seem to like this team as “IN,” but with the quarterfinal loss to Utah, I think the Lobos are unequivocally out. JR Giddens’ turnaround under Steve Alford has been well-documented, but the fact is that Ritchie McKay and Alford’s #263 non-conference SOS does not earn them any brownie points with the Committee, nor does their 1-4 record against the RPI Top 50.Odds of making the NCAA Tournament as an at-large: 20-80.
Likely Seed: 10 - NIT.

Syracuse - Let me be about the 384th analyst to officially welcome Jim Boeheim back to the Bubble again. The difference for Boeheim this year is a) his SOS is #9 in the country and b) the team has overcome tremendous adversity with respect to injuries just to get into consideration. The opening round Big East Tournament game with Villanova probably eliminated the ‘Cuse, though.

Odds of making the NCAA Tournament as an at-large: 25-75.
Likely Seed: 11 - NIT.

Dayton - Those wins against Pittsburgh and Louisville are just too long ago to be given much weight…for now. All that could change if the Flyers were to make a run to the A-10 Final. Dayton lost a monumental second-round game to Xavier in the second round on Thursday…

Odds of making the NCAA Tournament as an at-large: 22-78.
Likely Seed: 8 - NIT.

Stephen F Austin - To my mind, the Lumberjacks needed to make the Southland final in order to have a realistic at-large chance, despite an early-season wins at Oklahoma and at San Diego.

Odds of making the NCAA Tournament as an at-large: 20-80.
Likely Seed: 12 - NIT.

Southern Illinois - A 5-11 record away from Carbondale, and ending the season with two consecutive defeats spells curtains for Chris Lowery’s team, despite a solid resume which includes N-Mississippi State, Saint Mary’s, Western Kentucky, and Drake.

Odds of making the NCAA Tournament as an at-large: 5-95.
Likely Seed: 12 - NIT.