RESULTS OF THE 2002 PROJECTION

I projected 64/65 teams correctly, with Charlotte OUT and Butler IN. Of the 64, I projected 31 seeds exactly and another 24 within one line of their actual seed (which the Committee is allowed to move due to conference conflicts, travel considerations, and regular season rematches). So that's 55/65, I guess you could say, for a .846 accuracy rating. Last year I got 51/65 for a .785 accuracy rating, although I did have a much better exact seed ratio, with 43/51.

Teams that I was way off on this year were Gonzaga (3 seeds) and Michigan State (4 seeds--the Committee obviously did not take injuries into account with this team). For bonus points, I got 8/14 on first-round siting of team that both I and the Committee had as top 4 seeds. Not great, but you can't really fault me here--it was the first go-round for these goofy new rules. Joe Lunardi of ESPN.com also got 64/65 teams in the tournament but only 52/65 within one line (.800). And, by my calculations (he didn't put his own stats out on this figure), only got 28 exactly right.

FINAL PROJECTIONS, 5:37 PM ET MARCH 10, 2002

EAST
1. Maryland 16. Holy Cross (Patriot)
8. Xavier (A-10) 9. Kent State (MAC)
washington, dc
5. Georgia 12. San Diego St (MWC)
4. Ohio State (Big Ten) 13. UNC Wilm (CAA)
washington, dc
3. Oregon 14. Santa Barbara (Big West)
6. Michigan St 11. Penn (Ivy)
sacramento
7. Texas 10. Mississippi
2. UConn (Big East) 15. Boston U (Amer East)
pittsburgh
MIDWEST
1. Kansas 16. Murray St (OVC)
8. Hawaii (WAC) 9. Pepperdine
st louis
5. Florida 12. Butler
4. Marquette 13. Central Conn (NEC)
chicago
3. Pitt 14. Hampton (MEAC)
6. California 11. Southern Illinois
pittsburgh
7. Wake Forest 10. Notre Dame
2. Alabama 15. Florida Atl (A Sun)
greenville, sc
WEST
1. Oklahoma (Big XII) 16. Siena (MAAC) - Montana (Big Sky)
8. NC State 9. Wisconsin
dallas
5. USC 12. Tulsa
4. Kentucky 13. Boston College
albuquerque
3. Gonzaga (WCC) 14. Davidson (Southern)
6. Indiana 11. Utah
sacramento
7. Texas Tech 10. Mizzou
2. Arizona (Pac-10) 15. Illinois-Chicago (Horizon)
albuquerque
SOUTH
1. Duke (ACC) 16. Winthrop (Big South)
8. Stanford 9. W Kentucky (Sun Belt)
greenville, sc
5. Miami 12. Wyoming
4. Illinois 13. Valpo (MCC)
st louis
3. Mississippi St (SEC) 14. McNeese St (Southland)
6. Oklahoma State 11. Creighton (MVC)
dallas
7. UCLA 10. St Johns
2. Cincinnati (CUSA) 15. Alcorn St (SWAC)
chicago

 

Multiple-Bid Conferences: PAC-10 (6) SEC (6) Big XII (6) Big East (6) Big Ten (5) ACC (4)
CUSA (2) MWC (3) MVC (2) WAC (2) WCC (2)

 

Teams who should feel safe:
Pepperdine
Mizzou
Notre Dame
St Johns
Teams who should be worried:
Southern Illinois
Wyoming
Tulsa
Butler
Boston College
Teams who will probably be crying:
Charlotte
Ball State
Minnesota
Virginia
Memphis

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