NCAA Bracket Projections History

Over the last three season, Bracketography has correctly predicted 260 of 266 NCAA tournament teams, for an overall accuracy of 98%. Despite Joe Lunardi’s wild exaggerations (“I probably have a better grasp of this than any human being on earth.”**), this mark puts Bracketography ahead of Bracketology over the course of the site.

Contrary to what some fans have speculated, Bracketography does not hate Joe Lunardi. In fact, if it weren’t for Joe, this site wouldn’t exist; he’s a significant catalyst of the frenzy that has become March Madness over the past several years. For those who follow our rivalry closely, Joe’s and our projections tend to look pretty similar on a weekly basis. And despite the constant pressures associated with being a national media figure, we think Joe’s arguments and predictions on-air, in his blog, and in e-mail chats, are frequently dead-on.

We look forward to continuing our good-natured rivalry with Joe.

**Lunardi quoted in a February 21, 2004 article in the Lansing State Journal

All-time Accuracy Statistics

  • All teams: 769 / 786 (.978)
  • At-large teams: 398 / 414 (.961)
  • Within one line of exact seed*: 654 / 786 (.832)
  • Exact seed: 360 / 786 (.458)
* the Selection Committee is allowed to move teams one line from their true seed if there are conference, regular-season, or geographic conflicts. This number represents a bracket analyst's true accuracy rating.

Year-By-Year Projections

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